GBP/USD reclaims 1.3500 as US Dollar falters on geopolitical shock, weak data
- GBP/USD jumps above 1.3500 as geopolitical tensions reverse earlier US Dollar strength across FX markets.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI contracts for a tenth straight month, reinforcing concerns about economic momentum.
- Markets price BoE cuts later this year, traders' focus shifts to US NFPs and additional data.
GBP/USD surges over 0.29% on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) erases earlier gains sponsored by risk aversion in the FX space, courtesy of geopolitical developments over the weekend. The pair trades at 1.3500 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3413.
Sterling rallies as risk sentiment improves, the Dollar gives back gains and US ISM data disappoints
Improving market mood pushed the Greenback lower as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the American currency against other six, is down 0.03% to 98.39 after being up in the day by 0.40%.
Economic data in the US revealed that business activity contracted for the tenth straight month in December, following the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which dipped from 48.2 to 47.9, missing forecasts of 48.3.
Despite reaching its lowest level since October 2024, the PMI remained above 42.3, a level that ISM said over time is consistent with an expansion of the overall economy. Last December, the latest GDP figures revealed the US economy grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in Q3.
In the meantime, the Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that “inflation is still too high,” that he thinks the Fed is closer to neutral, and that the labor market is in a “low-hiring but low-firing” environment.
Geopolitical developments over the weekend kept the Greenback underpinned during most of the Asian and European sessions. Last Saturday, US forces ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, as he faces charges of “over 25 years to traffic cocaine into the US. He and others are accused of partnering with groups including the Sinaloa Cartel and Tren de Aragua, which have been designated by the US as foreign terrorist organizations,” via Bloomberg.
Across the pond, money markets expect the Bank of England to cut rates at least once this year, with a possible second cut towards the year’s end. Capital Edge data shows that the futures market was priced in 41.3 basis points of cuts towards the November 5, 2026, meeting.
Ahead, the UK economic docket is absent, not so in the US, which shows the first formal week, packed with data releases. Traders await the release of the ISM Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 and December’s Nonfarm Payrolls.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The GBP/USD technical picture suggests the pair could extend its gains past December’s peak of 1.3534, opening the door for further upside. If buyers clear 1.3550, expect a test of the 1.3600 mark in the near term. Conversely, if Cable slides below 1.3500, sellers could drive the exchange rate below 1.3400, eyeing a test of the 200-day SMA at 1.3374.
Pound Sterling Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | -0.33% | -0.06% | 0.47% | -0.63% | 0.04% | 0.10% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | -0.73% | -0.33% | 0.19% | -0.61% | -0.25% | -0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.33% | 0.73% | 0.38% | 0.93% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.55% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.33% | -0.38% | 0.45% | -0.46% | -0.37% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | -0.47% | -0.19% | -0.93% | -0.45% | -0.90% | -0.82% | -0.37% | |
| AUD | 0.63% | 0.61% | -0.12% | 0.46% | 0.90% | 0.36% | 0.43% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.25% | -0.48% | 0.37% | 0.82% | -0.36% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | 0.19% | -0.55% | -0.28% | 0.37% | -0.43% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
