GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tumbles below 1.2800 to five-week low
- GBP/USD hits a new five-week low of 1.2672 before rebounding above 1.2700.
- Technical outlook: Bearish momentum with first support at 1.2700, followed by 100-DMA at 1.2683 and 200-DMA at 1.2648.
- For bullish reversal, GBP/USD needs to surpass 50-DMA at 1.2783, targeting 1.2800 and 1.2900.
On Tuesday, the Pound Sterling prolonged its agony and extended its losses against the Greenback. Although sentiment has improved following Monday's stock riot, the buck remains bid, as shown by the GBP/USD pair, which trades at 1.2709, down by 0.49%.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
During the trading session, the GBP/USD tested the 100-day moving average (DMA) At 1.2683 and dipped to a new five-week low of 1.2672, but buyers emerged and lifted the exchange rate above 1.2700. Despite this, momentum favors sellers, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), standing bearish.
With the path of least resistance being tilted to the downside, the GBP/USD first support would be 1.2700. Once surpassed, the pair will test the 100-DMA at 1.2683, followed by the 200-DMA at 1.2648. On further weakness, the pair could challenge the 1.2600 figure.
Conversely, if the GBP/USD climbs above the 50-DMA at 1.2783, that would exacerbate a rally past 1.2800 and expose the 1.2900 figure.
GBP/USD Price Action – Daily Chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
