GBP/USD Price Analysis: Seems poised to appreciate further, awaits UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD attracts some buyers for the third successive day amid subdued USD demand.
The hotter UK CPI dashed hopes for an early rate cut by the BoE and underpins the GBP.
The intraday technical setup favours bulls and supports prospects for a further move up.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair ticks higher for the third successive day on Friday and looks to build on this week's goodish bounce from sub-1.2600 levels, or its lowest level since December 13. Spot prices currently trade just above the 1.2700 round figure, flirting with the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Investors trimmed their bets for an early interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) after the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose for the first time in 10 months. This continues to underpin the British Pound (GBP), which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

That said, diminishing odds for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve leads to a further rise in the US Treasury bond yields higher and lend some support to the Greenback. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the GBP/USD pair and might cap any further gains ahead of the release of the UK monthly Retail Sales figures.

From a technical perspective, the recent failure to find acceptance below the 1.2600 round-figure mark and the subsequent move-up warrants caution for bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on daily/hourly charts are holding in the positive territory. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside and supports prospects for additional gains.

Hence, some follow-through strength towards testing a downward sloping trend-line resistance extending from the December swing high, currently around the 1.2760-1.2765 region, looks like a distinct possibility. The said barrier should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively might set the stage for a move towards reclaiming the 1.2800 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, any meaningful slide below the 1.2700 mark now seems to find decent support near the 1.2635-1.2630 region. This is closely followed by the 1.2600 round figure, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The GBP/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the 200-day SMA support, currently pegged near mid-1.2500s.

GBP/USD 1-hour chart

Technical levels to watch

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2711
Today Daily Change	0.0012
Today Daily Change %	0.09
Today daily open	1.2699

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2713
Daily SMA50	1.2628
Daily SMA100	1.2452
Daily SMA200	1.255

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2704
Previous Daily Low	1.2648
Previous Weekly High	1.2786
Previous Weekly Low	1.2674
Previous Monthly High	1.2828
Previous Monthly Low	1.2501
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2683
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.267
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2664
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2628
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2608
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2719
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2739
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2775

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD edges higher as hot CPI inflation and hawkish RBA lift rate hike bets

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes.

USD/JPY meets support near 157.00

USD/JPY retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, revisiting the 157.00 region before attempting some recovery as investors continue to assess the latest BoJ meeting, where the central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated.

Gold sinks to fresh yearly lows despite risk-off mood as Fed rate hike bets weigh

Gold slips to fresh year-to-date lows on Friday. The metal struggles despite a risk-off mood across markets, as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes continue to dominate price action, leaving Gold on track to end the month in negative territory.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls defend $1.20 as sell-side pressure triggers liquidations

Ripple (XRP) trades around $1.25 on Friday, rising from a short-term support level established at $1.20. This minor upward correction follows a sharp sell-off, triggered amid reports of a hack attack on the Binance exchange that impacted approximately $6.3 billion. The attack drove the broader crypto market on edge, as Binance suspended both deposits and withdrawals to contain the situation.

BoJ recap: A pause for now... but Japan has entered a new inflation phase

The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 1.25% but delivered a distinctly hawkish message on the risk of an inflation overshoot. The decision passed by 8-1, with board member Takata dissenting in favour of an increase to 1.5%, while Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank would continue adjusting policy as needed.

The 2% inflation target came from a throwaway remark. It now moves trillions

The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal grew out of an off-the-cuff remark by a New Zealand politician in 1988. Bond investors still price long-term US debt as if 2% holds, so a change in how the Fed measures inflation would move markets.