GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bears in charge as ‘shooting star’ looms

GBP/USD down 0.06% after reaching a three-week high of 1.2634.
RSI flattening suggests normalization of buying pressure.
Support levels at 1.2500, 1.2474, and 1.2466; breach may test 1.2400.
Resistance at 200-DMA, 1.2600, and DMAs at 1.2612 and 1.2644.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The Pound Sterling holds to gains versus the US Dollar yet retraced from three-week highs reached at 1.2634 following a softer than expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, buyers lacked the strength to keep prices above 1.2600, opening the door for a test of the 200-day moving average (DMA). The GBP/USD trades at 1.2541, down by 0.06%.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The daily chart suggests the GBP/USD spike that breached the 50 and 100-DMA, reassembling a ‘shooting star’ opened the door for sellers to enter the market and dragged the spot price toward current levels. Even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are in charge, it seems to shift flat, an indication of normalization.

Therefore, as GBP/USD bulls lose steam, that could pave the way for a deeper pullback. The first support seen is 1.2500. A drop below that level would expose the May 2 low at 1.2474, ahead of the latest pivot low at 1.2466. Once those two levels are surpassed, up next would be the 1.2400 psychological level.

Conversely, if buyers moved in, the first resistance would be the 200-DMA at 1.2548. Further upside is seen at 1.2600, followed by the 50 and 100-DMAs, each at 1.2612 and 1.2644, respectively.

GBP/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2546
Today Daily Change	0.0012
Today Daily Change %	0.10
Today daily open	1.2534

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2502
Daily SMA50	1.2616
Daily SMA100	1.2646
Daily SMA200	1.255

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2545
Previous Daily Low	1.2472
Previous Weekly High	1.2542
Previous Weekly Low	1.23
Previous Monthly High	1.2709
Previous Monthly Low	1.23
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2517
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.25
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2489
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2444
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2417
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2562
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.259
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2635

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD eases from one-month high; holds above 0.7000 amid softer USD

AUD/USD pulls back slightly after hitting a fresh one-month high in the Asian session on Monday as bulls turn cautious ahead of the latest Australian consumer inflation figures and the crucial FOMC decision later this week. Meanwhile, expectations of another RBA rate hike in November support the Aussie. Moreover, a softer US Dollar helps the currency pair hold above the 0.7000 psychological mark.

USD/JPY extends recovery from one-month low beyond 157.00

USD/JPY kicks off the week on a positive note, building on Friday's modest bounce from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low amid some repositioning ahead of key central bank events and data risks. The Fed and the BoJ will announce their policy decisions on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. This, along with the release of Advance US Q3 GDP and the PCE Price Index on Thursday, should provide some meaningful impetus to the currency pair.

Gold struggles below $4,000 as oil-driven inflation fears reaffirm Fed hike bets

Gold attracts follow-through selling at the start of the new week, trading below $4,000 during the Asian session and near a three-month low. Higher energy prices continue to fuel inflation fears and reinforce US rate-hike expectations, undermining the non-yielding bullion. Bears, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting and other key central bank events this week.

Bitcoin slides below $80,000, Ethereum and XRP bears in control

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) bears remain in control, extending losses on Monday after three straight weeks of declines. BTC slips below $80,000, while ETH and XRP follow BTC’s lead and trade lower at $2,315 and $1.30, respectively. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests weakening momentum indicators, raising the risk of a deeper correction.

CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning

The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.