GBP/USD edges lower to near 1.3100 on potential for further BoE rate cuts

GBP/USD depreciates as the Pound Sterling struggles on the BoE signaling for further policy easing.
The BoE hinted at further easing if disinflation persists, suggesting the Bank Rate could decline gradually.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests pricing in a 67% chance of a cut in December, down from 62% a day ago.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD edges lower around 1.3120 during Asian hours on Friday, after rising 1% over the past two sessions. The pair depreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens following the Bank of England’s (BoE) dovish hold in November.

The BoE held interest rates steady at 4% on Thursday, as expected, but the vote indicated a dovish tilt, with four of the nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members favoring a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%.

BoE Policymakers Sarah Breeden, Dave Ramsden, Swati Dhingra, and Alan Taylor supported the reduction. The BoE signaled openness to further easing, stating that if disinflation progresses, the Bank Rate is likely to follow a gradual downward path.

The GBP/USD pair also faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after posting losses in the previous session. Traders will likely observe the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data on Friday, while the US government shutdown is restricting official data releases like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate.

The US Dollar faced challenges as the Challenger Job Cuts report prompted the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates at its December meeting. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 67% chance of a cut in December, down from 62% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Challenger, Grey & Christmas on Thursday, announced that companies cut over 153,000 jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Breaking: US and Israel attack Iran, risk aversion to sweep global markets

Early Saturday, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.