GBP/USD continues to rally, searching for 1.2900

GBP/USD rose another 0.85% on Wednesday as the Pound rally continues.
Greenback flows are softening as markets bet on tariff pivots.
Cable’s three-day rally has surged around 2.6%.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

GBP/USD hit the gas pedal and pumped out another strong session on Wednesday, lurching higher by another 0.85% and notching in a third straight session of firmly bullish gains. Pound markets are firmly recovering after weeks of uneasy risk appetite, pushing GBP/USD to 16-week highs.

Despite warnings that the UK economy is overall weakening, Cable markets rallied following Wednesday’s Monetary Policy Hearings from the Bank of England (BoE). According to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, A modest uptick in inflation is expected despite weaker growth figures, causing markets to readjust their rate-cut expectations for the rest of 2025. Rate markets now see less than 50 bps of total interest rate trims for the remainder of the year.

ADP Employment Change for February showed only 77K new jobs, well below the forecast of 140K and March’s 186K. Despite this, the ADP results have consistently failed to correlate with Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) since a reporting change in 2022, meaning the poor performance holds little significance.

This week, the Trump administration announced a one-month delay on tariffs for the automotive sector, which relies heavily on foreign trade. This exemption was retroactively declared as Trump’s team seeks to impose tariffs on trading partners without harming the US economy.

There is little of note on the UK side of the economic data docket this week, leaving this Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) as the key print for traders to worry about. US net jobs additions are expected to rebound slightly in February to 160K from January’s overwhelmingly unremarkable 143K print.

GBP/USD price forecast

GBP/USD’s 100+ pip gain on Wednesday has pushed price action well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2685. The pair could be poised for a new medium-term bull run, but a brief exhaustion play could be on the cards as technical oscillators continue to signal overbought conditions.

GBP/USD has gained 6.62% bottom-to-top since mid-January’s swing low into the 1.2100 handle. However, nearly a quarter of those gains have come in the last three days, with Cable rising over 323 pips since the start of the week, implying a general rise in volatility may lead to disappointing long-term momentum.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rises on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Solana risks correction within descending wedge as bearish bets rise

Solana hovers above $120 at press time on Tuesday after a nearly 2% decline on Monday. The SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds see renewed interest after recording their lowest weekly inflow last week.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is. Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).