GBP/USD consolidates in a range around 1.2570 area; upside potential seems limited

GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on Friday’s bounce from a multi-month trough.
The Fed’s hawkish tilt, elevated US bond yields and geopolitics underpin the USD.
The BoE’s dovish outlook further holds back the GBP bulls from placing fresh bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range above mid-1.2500s during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of Friday's bounce from the 1.2475 area, or the lowest level since May.

The US Dollar (USD) pulled back from a two-year high on Friday after the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report for November pointed to signs of inflation moderation and lingering challenges for the economy. This keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish shift might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck.

The Fed, as was widely anticipated, lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last Wednesday, though signaled a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and might cap the GBP/USD pair.

Apart from this, the Bank of England's (BoE) split vote decision to leave interest rates unchanged last week and a dovish outlook might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP). In fact, three members of the BoE's MPC voted to reduce rates, while policymakers downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024. This might further contribute to keeping a lid on the GBP/USD pair.

Market participants now look to the BoE's Quarterly Bulletin for some impetus ahead of the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has bottomed out in the near term.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles for direction amid USD gains

EUR/USD is trimming part of its earlier gains, coming under some mild downside pressure near 1.1730 as the US Dollar edges higher. Markets are still digesting the Fed’s latest rate decision, while also looking ahead to more commentary from Fed officials in the sessions ahead.

GBP/USD drops to daily lows near 1.3360

Disappointing UK data weighed on the Sterling towards the end of the week, triggering a pullback in GBP/USD to fresh daily lows near 1.3360. Looking ahead, the next key event across the Channel is the BoE meeting on December 18.

Gold losses momentum, challenges $4,300

Gold now gives away some gains and disputes the key $4,300 zone per troy ounce following earlier multi-week highs. The move is being driven by expectations that the Fed will deliver further rate cuts next year, with the yellow metal climbing despite a firmer Greenback and rising US Treasury yields across the board.

Litecoin Price Forecast: LTC struggles to extend gains, bullish bets at risk

Litecoin (LTC) price steadies above $80 at press time on Friday, following a reversal from the $87 resistance level on Wednesday. Derivatives data suggests a bullish positional buildup while the LTC futures Open Interest declines, flashing a long squeeze risk.

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.