Fundamental wrap: the drums of war, Russia/Trump/Syria, keep investors on their toes

From a funda perspective, it has been quite an eventful week so far and today really ramped up the ante on the geopolitical front with elevated risks for markets from developments in the Syrian saga and the 'cold' conflict between the US and Russia.

In fact, the Middle East, in general, has become a focus today and oil is tracking the headlines closely. The price of oil is through the January high and rose to the best levels since December 2014 today, a move that initially started in European trade from down at WTI $65.15bbls. 

The price rallied to WTI$67.35bbls with the breaking from Reuters stating that there had been two loud blasts in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and that a missile had been intercepted in the area. Yemen has been firing missiles towards Saudi Arabia periodically this year and the majority of them have been intercepted.

With eyes back Russia and the US stand-off, Trump preannounced that he will be attacking Syria when tweeting:

"Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia,  because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart!' you shouldn't be partners with a gas killing animal who kills his people and enjoys it!"

The tweet follows previous exchanges between Russia and US as follows:
 

"I would once again beseech you to refrain from the plans that you're currently developing," 

Moscow's UN envoy Vasily Nebenzia said on Tuesday. He warned Washington that it will "bear responsibility" for any "illegal military adventure" it carries out.

President Donald Trump tweeted today that the relationship with Russia“is worse now than it has ever been, and that includes the Cold War”.

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia,  because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!

Trump's administration was expected to meet on Wednesday to decide what if any action they would take in Damascus, Syria, and markets were pricing a potential missile strike as soon as this evening. However, there are headlines that the White House has said Trump has not laid out a timetable for possible Syria action but is leaving a number of options on Syria besides a missile strike. The White House said that Russia has failed at guaranteeing Syria would get rid of chemical weapons and Sanders said that  Trump sees Syria and Russia responsible for the attack.

From Bloomberg White House reporter Jennifer Jacobs:

• News: despite his tweet that missiles "Will be coming," Trump is still weighing options for military action in Syria, I'm told. No decision made yet. Trump meeting with Defence Sec James Mattis today. ****no U.S. Strike expected today.

There has also been some marshalling by the US President in rounding up international support from its allies, including France and the UK. 

• Theresa May moves closer to military action against Assad in response to chemical weapons attack - Telegraph
• UK PM May: said to move submarines in the range of Syria - Telegraph
• Trump’s Middle East peace plan is said to near completion - RTRS

On the fringes of all of this, Trump attacked Mueller and Rosenstein and said they caused bad blood with Russia

• Trump attacks Mueller and Rosenstein and says they caused bad blood with Russia
• CNN reported yesterday that Trump is considering firing Rosenstein as a way to curb the FBI investigation.

FOMC minutes:

Meanwhile, the FOMC was a market event as well. The market's take was a slightly more hawkish outlook from the Fed.

Details here: FOMC minutes: a more hawkish bias in these minutes

Further headlines from the session:

• US stocks trade weaker amid rising geopolitical tensions, FOMC minutes awaited
• US speaker Ryan confirms this will be last year as a member of House.
• US treasury Mnuchin: should call China trade issue a 'dispute'.
• US consumer prices post the first drop in 10 months; core inflation firming.
• ECB's Hansson: all changes to policy must be gradual.
• ECB's Draghi: expects wage, inflation to rise as the economy improves.
• EU's Dombrowski: fears planned eurozone reform will fail - HB
• Italy's Salvini may be asked to form government next week.