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Forex Today: Yen corrects lower in Asia, German IFO, UK growth figures eyed

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

On North Korea willingness to resolve issues with the US, risk-off mood eased somewhat in Asia on the final trading of the week, lifting the sentiment around the higher-yielding assets such as equities and Treasury yields. However, markets remained on the edge since Trump canceled the June North Korea Summit, keeping the downside capped in the safe-havens Yen and gold.

Among the Asia-pac currencies, USD/JPY rebounded from two-week lows, but upside stalled near 109.75 levels. The Antipodeans traded on the back foot amid rife geopolitical tensions and broad-based US dollar strength while a lack of fresh economic news also left most majors at mercy of the risk trends and USD dynamics.

Main topics in Asia

North Korea willing to meet with the U.S. at any time

Wires are crossing that North Korea are willing to meet with the U.S. at any time …

Canada PM pins new US tariff talk on NAFTA - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, Canada's Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, accused the Trump administration of "flimsy logic" regarding a new investigation into placing tariffs on foreign vehicles imported into the US, and suggested the move is specifically linked to NAFTA talks.

Fed will raise rates three more times this year - Reuters poll

Federal Reserve will hike rates three more times this year, pushing the interest rates to 2.25 percent - 2.5 percent by the year-end, according to latest Reuters poll.

Mexico will not be pressured into NAFTA renegotiation but will make counter-offer - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, Mexico is staunchly refusing to cave to US pressure to conclude the stalled-out NAFTA renegotiations.

US Commerce Secretary Ross to visit China June 2-4 to discuss trade issues - Xinhua

Xinhua, China’s state-run news agency, is out with the latest headline, citing that the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is scheduled to visit China from June 2^nd to 4^th to discuss the impending trade issues.

Gold clocks 10-day high above $1300

Currently, gold (XU/USD) is trading at $1,302/Oz, having clocked a ten-day high of $1,306 in the overnight trade. The yellow metal picked up a bid yesterday, possibly due to renewed geopolitical tensions and the resulting risk aversion in the equity markets.

Key Focus ahead

Today’s EUR calendar offers the German IFO business climate and the second estimate of UK Q1 GDP, which will be reported at 0830 GMT alongside the release of the prelim business investment and other minority reports. Meanwhile, the ECOFIN meetings will go on all through the day. These meetings are usually held in Brussels and attended by Finance Ministers from EU member states.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Bullock will speak at 1200 GMT at De Nederlandsche Bank's Housing Market seminar, in Amsterdam. His speech will be followed by the key US durable goods and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data.

A bevy of central bank speakers is lined up to make their respective speeches in the NA session, which will wrap up an eventful macro week.

1315 GMT – ECB Coeure’s speech

1320 GMT – Fed Chair Powell’s speech

1320 GMT – BOE Governor Carney’s speech

1545 GMT – Fed Kaplan speech

1545 GMT – Fed Bostic speech

1545 GMT – Fed Evans speech

1920 GMT – ECB Weidmann’s speech

EUR/USD: Bullish tinge, but hard to be optimistic longer term

The pair could find acceptance above 1.1750 today and may rise even further if the US durable goods figure, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, disappoints expectations.

GBP/USD continues to pout, buyers remain silenced ahead of the UK's GDP figures

The Sterling has been hammered by drooping economic figures that saw the Bank of England forced to walk back an expected rate hike in May, and today's quarterly GDP figures will see traders hoping for some good news.

UK: Recent activity data point to Q1 GDP growth at 0.1% q/q - Barclays

The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek at what to expect from today’s UK GDP second estimate for the first quarter, slated for release at 0830 GMT.

Key US data previews - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura previewed the forthcoming key US data for the end of the week.

Dangerous Brinkmanship

Heading for the Friday finish line with a long weekend looming in both US and UK, we should expect some position consolidation.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, May 24
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
17:00	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
18:00	USD FOMC Member Harker Speech
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%
Friday, May 25
24h	ARS May Revolution
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
05:00	SGD Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	1.2%	0.5% Revised from 0.3%
05:00	SGD Industrial Production (YoY)	9.1%	8.3%	6.1% Revised from 5.9%
06:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			1
06:00	NOK Labour Force Survey		3.9%	3.9%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			5.1%
07:00	HUF Unemployment Rate (3M)			3.9%
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		105.5	105.7
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		102.0	102.1
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		98.5	98.7
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)		6.3%	6.6%
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals		37.500K	37.567K
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.1%	0.1%
08:30	GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (YoY)		2.4%	2.6%
08:30	GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ)		0.2%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Index of Services (3M/3M)		0.3%	0.4%
10:00	EUR Trade Balance non-EU			€3.83B
11:30	TRY Capacity Utilization			77.3%
11:30	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			111.2
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			12.6%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$417.7B
12:00	AUD RBA Assistant Governor Bullock Speech
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		-1.4%	2.6%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation		0.5%	0.0%
13:00	MXN Trade Balance, $		$0.931B	$1.918B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance s/a, $			$-0.719B
13:15	EUR ECB Cœuré Speech
13:20	USD Fed's Powell Speech
13:20	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		98.8	98.8
14:00	MXN Accumulated Current Account/GDP			1.1%
14:00	MXN Current Account, $ (QoQ)		$-5.515M	$-3.207M
15:45	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
15:45	USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
15:45	USD Fed's Evans Speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			844
19:20	EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$198.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$92.4K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			644.4K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£5.6K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥3.7K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€115.1K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-23.1K
Monday, May 28
24h	USD Memorial Day
24h	GBP Spring Bank Holiday
24h	EUR Holy Spirit Monday
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)			0%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)			-0.1%
06:00	EUR Industrial Confidence			13
06:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			23.2
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			98.3
07:15	CHF Employment Level (QoQ)			4.962M
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			1.2%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			2.9%
07:30	SEK Trade Balance (MoM)			2.6B
08:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
08:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2%
11:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			-2.8%
11:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-2.2%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.2%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate			2.9%
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			107
23:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			104
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate			2.5%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio			1.59
Tuesday, May 29
24h	IDR Waisak Day
24h	SGD Vesak Day
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)			0.2%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)			2.6%
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			19,855M
06:00	CHF Trade Balance			1,768M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			18,087M
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence			101
08:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			117.1
08:00	EUR Business Confidence			107.7
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			4.2%
08:00	EUR Private loans (YoY)			3%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			3.7%
08:00	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			100.3
08:30	EUR Business Confidence			2.1
n/a	EUR Consumer Confidence			2.4
09:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			58
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.3%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			1.7%
12:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			13.1%
12:30	EUR Current Account Balance EUR			€-205B
12:30	CAD Current Account			-16.35B
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)			6.8%
14:30	USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index			21.8
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			1.72%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.895%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			2.08%
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			14.7%
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales			0.1%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)			-0.7%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)			1%
Wednesday, May 30
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index			43.6
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.6%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			1.3%
06:00	ZAR Private Sector Credit			5.96%
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			6.42%
06:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)			0.1%
06:45	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.3%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
07:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)			1.4%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
07:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)			-0.1%
07:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			34.83%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.1%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.3%
07:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator			105.3
08:00	EUR Unemployment Change			-7K
08:00	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.			5.3%
08:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
08:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.5%
09:00	PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)			5.1%
09:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.45B
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			0.6%
09:00	EUR Services Sentiment			14.9
09:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			0.2
09:00	EUR Industrial Confidence			7.1
09:00	EUR Business Climate			1.35
09:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator			112.7
09:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			7.2
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-2.6%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.1%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.4%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.52%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
12:15	USD ADP Employment Change		190K	204K
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		2%	2%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		2.4%	2.3%
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			0.3%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-68.04B
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)			2.5%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)			2.7%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			0.8%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index			2.1%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ)			1.7%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			0%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			3.2%
13:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.4%
14:00	CAD BoC Rate Statement
14:00	CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision			1.25%
18:00	USD Fed's Beige Book
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.3M
21:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos
21:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos			-24.13B
23:00	KRW Industrial Output Growth			-2.5%
23:00	KRW Industrial Output (YoY)			-4.3%
23:00	KRW Service Sector Output			0.4%
23:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence			-9
23:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			2.4%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)			1.4%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥99.1B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥948.9B
Thursday, May 31
24h	BRL Corpus Christi
24h	PLN Corpus Christi
24h	EUR Corpus Christi
24h	EUR Corpus Christi
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.8
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI			51.4
01:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			17.8%
01:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			-23.4
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			5.1%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.5%
01:30	AUD Private Capital Expenditure			-0.2%
05:00	PEN Inflation
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)			-8.3%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-4%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			0.895M
05:45	CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.9%
05:45	CHF Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)			0.6%
06:00	NOK Credit Indicator			6.3%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			0.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)			1.8%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-5.86B
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.9%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.7%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.1%
07:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.5%
07:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)			-1.8%
08:00	EUR Unemployment			11%
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)			£5.4B
08:30	GBP Consumer Credit			£0.254B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals			62.914K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			2.2%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			-1.4%
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			11.4%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.1%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.5%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)			0.7%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.7%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.145%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			7,156.99B
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			0.5%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)			0.6%
11:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.5%
11:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)			36.081K
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			4.1%
12:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)			-2.4%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			9.47B
12:30	USD Personal Spending		0.3%	0.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	1.9%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0%
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			2%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.741M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			234K
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)			0.4%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$456.3B
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		58.0	57.6
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			-4.4%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			91B
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			5.778M
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate
15:00	INR Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)			7.2%
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			1.2%
20:00	COP Interest rate
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI			77
21:45	NZD Terms of Trade Index			0.8%
22:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			58.3
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)			2.8%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)			1.1%
23:50	JPY Capital Spending			4.3%
Friday, Jun 01
24h	IDR Pancasila Day
00:00	KRW Trade Balance
n/a	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			-2%
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI			48.4
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52.5
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI			51.1
04:00	IDR Inflation (YoY)			3.41%
04:00	IDR Core Inflation (YoY)			2.69%
04:00	IDR Inflation (MoM)			0.1%
04:00	JPY Vehicle Production (YoY)			-0.1%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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