Forex Today: USD on the defensive ahead of US inflation

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today was stuck in tight trading ranges in the Asian session, a typical trading scenario ahead of the key US macro news, this time being the US inflation figures. The US dollar traded broadly subdued, as the bulls remained on the edge, allowing most major currencies to enjoy minor gains. On the data front, the NZ manufacturing index disappointed and dampened the sentiment around the Kiwi.

Main topics in Asia

Britain concedes it will have to pay EU exit bill - FT

The Financial Times has reported that Britain will indeed face Brexit liabilities that had been previously estimated by the EU to stand at up to EUR 100bn gross.

NZD/USD slight offer on business PMI, bulls holding well on 0.73 handle

NZD/USD has moved into a phase of consolidation and remains bid despite the recent Business PMI that came in at 56.2 vs prior 58.5.

Fitch affirms China at ‘A+’, outlook Stable

Ratings agency Fitch affirms China at ‘A+’ and maintains A stable outlook.

Gold holds above May low, eyes US inflation data

Gold is trading above $1214.40 (May low) in Asia and appears on track for the first weekly gain in three, especially if the US CPI and the advance retail sales number disappoints expectations.

Key Focus ahead

We have another data-quiet EUR session today, with the only second-tier Eurozone trade balance on the cards, while the UK docket remains data-empty. In the NA session, we have plenty of risk events in store from the US economy, which includes the CPI, retail sales, industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data. However, the key determinant for the Fed next policy take on the interest rates and subsequent USD moves remains the US inflation figures. The US CPI data is expected to come in at +0.1% m/m versus -0.1% seen last, while core figures are expected to rise to 0.2% versus 0.1% previous.

EUR/USD - It’s all about inflation differential

EUR/USD hit a one-week low of 1.1370 on Thursday even though the American dollar was showing no signs of lift against other majors.

GBP/USD hovers near weekly tops, awaits US CPI for next direction

The GBP/USD pair extended its overnight trend into Asia, as the bulls take a breather ahead of a slew of critical US economic data due later on Friday.

US: Key Events ahead - Barclays

Analysts at Barclays are out with their brief preview on what to expect from the upcoming key US macro data that will be reported in the day ahead.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Jul 13
22:00	PEN Interest rate decision			4%
22:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
22:30	NZD Business NZ PMI	56.2		58.2 Revised from 58.5
Friday, Jul 14
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	2.5%		2.5% Revised from 2.7%
00:00	SGD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.4%		-1.9% Revised from -1.3%
24h	EUR Bastille Day
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization	-4.1%		4.3%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)	-3.6%	-3.3%	-3.3%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)	6.5%		6.8%
04:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)	5.8%		2.8% Revised from 2.9%
06:00	INR WPI Inflation			2.17%
n/a	EUR Current Account			€-0.7B
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.7%
06:00	NOK Trade Balance			7.8B
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.8%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)			0.2%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.2%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
n/a	TRY Budget Balance			6.4B
08:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)			14.35B
09:00	EUR Global Trade Balance		€2.43B	€3.60B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance EU			€1.04B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.		€20.3B	€19.6B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.			€17.9B
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			2.5%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			7.2%
11:00	INR Trade Deficit Government		$12.50B	$13.84B
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$386.54B
12:00	PLN Current Account			€-275M
12:00	RUB Budget Fulfilment			-1.7%
12:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.2%	-0.3%
12:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.1%	-0.3%
12:30	USD Retail Sales control group		0.3%	0.0%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.7%	1.9%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a		251.71	251.33
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	-0.1%
12:30	USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)		245.10	244.73
13:15	USD Capacity Utilization		76.7%	76.6%
13:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.3%	0.0%
13:30	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		95.0	95.1
14:00	USD Business Inventories		0.3%	-0.2%
19:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)			-2%
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$69.6K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$93.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			341K
19:30	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)			-6.8%
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-27.8K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-75K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€77.5K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$32.4K
Saturday, Jul 15
24h	TRY Democracy and National Solidarity Day
Sunday, Jul 16
24h	CLP Our Lady of Mount Carmel
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)			-0.4%
23:01	GBP Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)			1.8%
Monday, Jul 17
24h	JPY Marine Day
02:00	CNY Retail Sales (YoY)			10.7%
02:00	CNY Industrial Production (YoY)			6.5%
02:00	CNY NBS Press Conference
02:00	CNY Urban investment (YTD) (YoY)			8.6%
02:00	CNY Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			6.9%
02:00	CNY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			1.3%
04:00	IDR Trade Balance			$0.47B
04:00	IDR Imports			24.03%
04:00	IDR Exports			24.08%
n/a	TRY 3mth quarterly jobless average			11.7%
n/a	EUR EU Norm Inflation (MoM)			0.3%
n/a	EUR EU Norm Inflation (YoY)			1.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)			1.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	-0.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.3%	1.3%
n/a	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			7.4%
12:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		15.0	19.8
12:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities			$10.6B
12:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities			$-9.87B
n/a	RUB Industrial Output			5.6%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.04%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.125%
n/a	PEN Gross Domestic Product			0.17%
22:45	NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)			1%
22:45	NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
Tuesday, Jul 18
01:30	CNY House Price Index			10.4%
01:30	AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)			4.9%
01:30	AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)			2.9%
01:30	AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
n/a	EUR HICP (MoM)			-0.1%
n/a	EUR HICP (YoY)			2.1%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)			3.7%
08:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)			5.6%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a			3.6%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.1%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a			11.6%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.1%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a			2.8%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a			-1.3%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.6%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.9%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
n/a	HKD Unemployment rate			3.2%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation			88
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			18.6
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			37.7
n/a	EUR 9-Month Letras Auction			-0.385%
n/a	EUR 3-Month Letras Auction			-0.425%
n/a	PLN Corporate Sector Wages			5.4%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.3%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)			2.1%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	-0.7%
n/a	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision			0.9%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.4%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.1%
14:00	USD NAHB Housing Market Index		68	67
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index			-0.4%
15:30	USD 52-Week Bill auction			1.215%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.95%
20:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows			$65.8B
20:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows			$1.8B
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-8.13M
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)			3.5%
n/a	KRW Producer Price Index Growth			-0.2%
Wednesday, Jul 19
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)			0%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			5.4%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
09:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)			0.3%
09:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)			3.2%
10:00	GBP Inflation Report Hearings
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance			€0.37B
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-7.4%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)			1.5%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			7.4%
12:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)			8.4%
12:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)			9.1%
12:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.5%
12:30	USD Housing Starts Change			-5.5%
12:30	USD Building Permits Change			-4.9%
12:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.180M	1.092M
12:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.210M	1.168M
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)			1.1%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			-2
n/a	RUB Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.5%
n/a	RUB Unemployment Rate			5.2%
n/a	RUB Producer Price Index (YoY)			5.9%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-7.564M
n/a	COP Trade Balance			$-1,233.8M
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance			¥133.8B
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)			17.8%
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total			¥-203.4B
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)			14.9%
Thursday, Jul 20
24h	COP Independence Day
01:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)			6
01:30	AUD Fulltime employment			52.1K
01:30	AUD Part-time employment			-10.1K
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.			42K
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.			5.5%
01:30	AUD Participation Rate			64.9%
02:00	JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision			-0.1%
02:00	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
03:00	JPY BoJ outlook report
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)			2.1%
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			2.7%
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			23
05:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			5.1%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.8%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
06:00	CHF Trade Balance			3,400M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			19,564M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			16,164M
06:30	JPY BoJ Press Conference
n/a	TRY Consumer Confidence			70
n/a	DKK Consumer Confidence			7.1
07:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			14.6%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.3%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.5%
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€22B
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€21.5B
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)			-1.6%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)			0.6%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)			0.9%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)			-1.2%
n/a	HKD Consumer Price Index			2%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.395%
10:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
10:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
11:45	EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision			0%
11:45	EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision			-0.4%
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			0.16%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.945M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			247K
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		22.9	27.6
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$410.9B
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			-1.3
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			57B
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			8%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥839.5B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-35B
Friday, Jul 21
24h	EUR National holiday

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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