Forex Today: USD on the defensive ahead of US inflation


Forex today was stuck in tight trading ranges in the Asian session, a typical trading scenario ahead of the key US macro news, this time being the US inflation figures. The US dollar traded broadly subdued, as the bulls remained on the edge, allowing most major currencies to enjoy minor gains. On the data front, the NZ manufacturing index disappointed and dampened the sentiment around the Kiwi.

Main topics in Asia

Britain concedes it will have to pay EU exit bill - FT

The Financial Times has reported that Britain will indeed face Brexit liabilities that had been previously estimated by the EU to stand at up to EUR 100bn gross.

NZD/USD slight offer on business PMI, bulls holding well on 0.73 handle

NZD/USD has moved into a phase of consolidation and remains bid despite the recent Business PMI that came in at 56.2 vs prior 58.5.

Fitch affirms China at ‘A+’, outlook Stable

Ratings agency Fitch affirms China at ‘A+’ and maintains A stable outlook. 

Gold holds above May low, eyes US inflation data

Gold is trading above $1214.40 (May low) in Asia and appears on track for the first weekly gain in three, especially if the US CPI and the advance retail sales number disappoints expectations. 

Key Focus ahead

We have another data-quiet EUR session today, with the only second-tier Eurozone trade balance on the cards, while the UK docket remains data-empty. In the NA session, we have plenty of risk events in store from the US economy, which includes the CPI, retail sales, industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data. However, the key determinant for the Fed next policy take on the interest rates and subsequent USD moves remains the US inflation figures. The US CPI data is expected to come in at +0.1% m/m versus -0.1% seen last, while core figures are expected to rise to 0.2% versus 0.1% previous.

EUR/USD - It’s all about inflation differential

EUR/USD hit a one-week low of 1.1370 on Thursday even though the American dollar was showing no signs of lift against other majors. 

GBP/USD hovers near weekly tops, awaits US CPI for next direction

The GBP/USD pair extended its overnight trend into Asia, as the bulls take a breather ahead of a slew of critical US economic data due later on Friday.

US: Key Events ahead - Barclays

Analysts at Barclays are out with their brief preview on what to expect from the upcoming key US macro data that will be reported in the day ahead.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Jul 13
22:00
 
 
4%
22:00
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
22:30
56.2
 
58.2 Revised from 58.5
Friday, Jul 14
00:00
2.5%
 
2.5% Revised from 2.7%
00:00
0.4%
 
-1.9% Revised from -1.3%
24h
 
 
04:30
-4.1%
 
4.3%
04:30
-3.6%
-3.3%
-3.3%
04:30
6.5%
 
6.8%
04:30
5.8%
 
2.8% Revised from 2.9%
06:00
 
 
2.17%
n/a
 
 
€-0.7B
06:00
 
 
0.7%
06:00
 
 
7.8B
07:00
 
 
3.8%
07:00
 
 
0.2%
07:00
 
 
1.9%
07:00
 
 
0.3%
08:00
 
1.2%
1.2%
08:00
 
1.2%
1.2%
08:00
 
-0.2%
-0.2%
08:00
 
-0.1%
-0.1%
n/a
 
 
6.4B
08:00
 
 
14.35B
09:00
 
€2.43B
€3.60B
09:00
 
 
€1.04B
09:00
 
€20.3B
€19.6B
09:00
 
 
€17.9B
10:00
 
 
2.5%
10:00
 
 
7.2%
11:00
 
$12.50B
$13.84B
11:30
 
 
$386.54B
12:00
 
 
€-275M
12:00
 
 
-1.7%
12:30
 
0.2%
-0.3%
12:30
 
0.1%
-0.3%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.0%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
12:30
 
1.7%
1.9%
12:30
 
1.7%
1.7%
12:30
 
251.71
251.33
12:30
 
0.1%
-0.1%
12:30
 
245.10
244.73
13:15
 
76.7%
76.6%
13:15
 
0.3%
0.0%
13:30
 
 
14:00
 
95.0
95.1
14:00
 
0.3%
-0.2%
19:00
 
 
-2%
19:30
 
 
$69.6K
19:30
 
 
$93.8K
19:30
 
 
341K
19:30
 
 
-6.8%
19:30
 
 
£-27.8K
19:30
 
 
¥-75K
19:30
 
 
€77.5K
19:30
 
 
$32.4K
Saturday, Jul 15
24h
 
 
Sunday, Jul 16
24h
 
 
23:01
 
 
-0.4%
23:01
 
 
1.8%
Monday, Jul 17
24h
 
 
02:00
 
 
10.7%
02:00
 
 
6.5%
02:00
 
 
02:00
 
 
8.6%
02:00
 
 
6.9%
02:00
 
 
1.3%
04:00
 
 
$0.47B
04:00
 
 
24.03%
04:00
 
 
24.08%
n/a
 
 
11.7%
n/a
 
 
0.3%
n/a
 
 
1.1%
09:00
 
 
1.2%
09:00
 
0.0%
-0.1%
09:00
 
 
0%
09:00
 
1.3%
1.3%
n/a
 
 
n/a
 
 
7.4%
12:30
 
15.0
19.8
12:30
 
 
$10.6B
12:30
 
 
$-9.87B
n/a
 
 
5.6%
15:30
 
 
1.04%
15:30
 
 
1.125%
n/a
 
 
0.17%
22:45
 
 
1%
22:45
 
 
2.2%
Tuesday, Jul 18
01:30
 
 
10.4%
01:30
 
 
4.9%
01:30
 
 
2.9%
01:30
 
 
n/a
 
 
-0.1%
n/a
 
 
2.1%
08:30
 
 
0.4%
08:30
 
 
3.7%
08:30
 
 
5.6%
08:30
 
 
3.6%
08:30
 
 
0.1%
08:30
 
 
11.6%
08:30
 
 
0.1%
08:30
 
 
2.8%
08:30
 
 
-1.3%
08:30
 
 
2.6%
08:30
 
 
2.9%
08:30
 
 
0.3%
n/a
 
 
3.2%
09:00
 
 
88
09:00
 
 
18.6
09:00
 
 
37.7
n/a
 
 
-0.385%
n/a
 
 
-0.425%
n/a
 
 
5.4%
12:30
 
 
1.4%
12:30
 
-0.1%
-0.3%
12:30
 
 
2.1%
12:30
 
0.0%
-0.7%
n/a
 
 
0.9%
12:55
 
 
2.4%
12:55
 
 
-1.1%
14:00
 
68
67
n/a
 
 
-0.4%
15:30
 
 
1.215%
15:30
 
 
0.95%
20:00
 
 
$65.8B
20:00
 
 
$1.8B
20:30
 
 
-8.13M
21:00
 
 
3.5%
n/a
 
 
-0.2%
Wednesday, Jul 19
00:30
 
 
0%
08:00
 
 
5.4%
08:00
 
 
0.3%
09:00
 
 
0.3%
09:00
 
 
3.2%
10:00
 
 
n/a
 
 
€0.37B
11:00
 
 
-7.4%
11:00
 
 
1.5%
11:30
 
 
7.4%
12:00
 
 
8.4%
12:00
 
 
9.1%
12:00
 
 
2.5%
12:30
 
 
-5.5%
12:30
 
 
-4.9%
12:30
 
1.180M
1.092M
12:30
 
1.210M
1.168M
12:30
 
 
1.1%
13:00
 
 
-2
n/a
 
 
-0.5%
n/a
 
 
5.2%
n/a
 
 
5.9%
14:30
 
 
-7.564M
n/a
 
 
$-1,233.8M
23:50
 
 
¥133.8B
23:50
 
 
17.8%
23:50
 
 
¥-203.4B
23:50
 
 
14.9%
Thursday, Jul 20
24h
 
 
01:30
 
 
6
01:30
 
 
52.1K
01:30
 
 
-10.1K
01:30
 
 
42K
01:30
 
 
5.5%
01:30
 
 
64.9%
02:00
 
 
-0.1%
02:00
 
 
03:00
 
 
04:30
 
 
2.1%
04:30
 
 
2.7%
04:30
 
 
23
05:30
 
 
5.1%
06:00
 
 
2.8%
06:00
 
 
-0.2%
06:00
 
 
3,400M
06:00
 
 
19,564M
06:00
 
 
16,164M
06:30
 
 
n/a
 
 
70
n/a
 
 
7.1
07:00
 
 
14.6%
07:00
 
 
2.3%
07:00
 
 
-0.5%
08:00
 
 
€22B
08:00
 
 
€21.5B
08:30
 
 
-1.6%
08:30
 
 
0.6%
08:30
 
 
0.9%
08:30
 
 
-1.2%
n/a
 
 
2%
n/a
 
 
1.395%
10:00
 
 
1.5%
10:00
 
 
0%
11:45
 
 
0%
11:45
 
 
-0.4%
12:00
 
 
0.16%
12:30
 
 
1.945M
12:30
 
 
247K
12:30
 
22.9
27.6
12:30
 
 
n/a
 
 
$410.9B
14:00
 
 
-1.3
14:30
 
 
57B
22:45
 
 
8%
23:50
 
 
¥839.5B
23:50
 
 
¥-35B
Friday, Jul 21
24h
 
 

 

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