|

Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates losses, eyes on central bank speakers

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, January 10:

Pressured by the improving market mood and dovish Fed bets, the US Dollar continued to weaken against its major rivals at the beginning of the week. The US Dollar Index touched its lowest level in seven months at 102.94 but managed to stage a modest rebound early Tuesday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem and FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the International Symposium on Central Bank Independence organized by Riksbank. The US economic docket will also feature the NFIB Business Optimism Index for December and the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for January.

According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a nearly 80% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in February. Although some policymakers pushed back against this market positioning, the US Dollar struggled to stay resilient against its rivals on Monday. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that the Fed was willing to keep rates higher well into 2024 and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Wall Street Journal that a case could be made for either a 50 or a 25 bps rate hike at the next meeting.

Nevertheless, markets seem to have turned cautious with US stock index futures losing between 0.2% and 0.25% in the early European morning. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays relatively calm, slightly above 3.5% following Monday's slide.

EUR/USD climbed to its strongest level since early June above 1.0760 on Monday before going into a consolidation phase below 1.0750 early Tuesday.

GBP/USD managed to build on Friday's gains and rose nearly 100 pips before closing slightly below 1.2200 on Monday. The pair was last seen trading modestly lower on the day at around 1.2170.

USD/JPY failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged. As of writing, the pair was moving sideways slightly below 132.00.

Gold price advanced above $1,880 for the first time since early May on Monday but erased a large portion of its daily gains to close modestly higher. In the early European morning, XAU/USD is moving up and down in a narrow channel at around $1,870.

Bitcoin registered small gains on Monday and was last seen moving sideways near $17,200. Ethereum gained more than 2% on Monday and touched its highest level in nearly four weeks near $1,350 before retreating toward $1,300 on Tuesday.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1750 as traders await FOMC Minutes

The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1770 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders continue to price in the prospect of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2026, following the 25-basis-point rate reduction delivered at the December meeting. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold rebounds to near $4,350 after Monday's 4+% correction

Gold is bouncing to near $4,350 early Tuesday, helped by renewed US Dollar weakness and a dismal mood. Gold was hit sharply by profit-taking on Monday during US trading hours and retreated towards $4,300, where buyers reappeared.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).