Forex Today: US-China trade war begins, all eyes on China’s retaliation, US NFP


Asia sees the US tariffs into effect on the Chinese goods that officially kicked-in a trade war between the US and China. The fx space continues to remain jittery, with the Yen treading water across the board while the Antipodeans caught a minor bid amid a rally in the Asian equities, as the US tariffs imposition was already priced-in by markets. The Kiwi emerged the strongest, having taken-out the 0.68 barrier.

Amongst the commodities, gold prices on Comex were little changed near $ 1255 levels while both crude benchmarks also steadied, as markets await China’s reaction to the US tariffs and the key US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.

Main topics in Asia

US tariffs on China take effect as Trump trade war escalates – Reuters

Its 0400 GMT and the US tariffs on China take effect, as confirmed by the US President Trump late-Thursday.

China vows to respond to the US 'opening fire' with tariffs - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, China's vow to respond to the US' opening volley of trade tariffs will see a decisive ramping-up of further trade barriers from the US.

PBOC Adviser: Trade war with US to slow GDP by 0.2 percent

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) adviser is out on the wires assuring markets that a trade war with the US will not have a big negative impact on the Chinese economy. 

China's Yuan to feel the heat of a trade spat with US - Reuters News

China's Yuan will report year-on-year losses in June 2019, according to a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists.

Japan government to forecast FY2019 consumer inflation of 1.5 pct - Reuters News

The Japanese government is set to forecast consumer price growth of 1.5 percent for the fiscal year 2019 (begins from April 2019), a draft document obtained by Reuters revealed. 

Gold: US tariffs kicks in but no evidence of Safe haven bids

The US-China trade war has become a reality after multiple rounds of failed talks, still, gold, a classic safe-haven asset, is reporting marginal losses at the time of writing.

Key Focus ahead

In the day ahead, markets could remain jittery, evaluating the impact of the US-China trade war on the global economy. Hence, risk-aversion is likely to emerge as the main theme, driving the sentiment across the financial markets. Markets also watch out for any retaliation by China on the US’ tariffs implementation, which could outweigh the impact of the key US labor market report due later on Friday at 1230 GMT. However, the data may be watched for a fresh take on the US economic outlook, as the Fed remains on track for two more rate hikes this year.

Also, in focus is the Canadian jobs and trade balance data ahead of the US rigs count data, which is expected to have a major impact on the oil trades and on Loonie as well.

EUR/USD trades calm, Trump's trade war is officially underway

The financial markets may turn risk-averse in European and US session, as the US-China trade war begins. Hence, the calm in the EUR/USD could be short-lived. Further, the trade standoff could overshadow the monthly US non-farm payrolls figure, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today.

GBP/USD backing away from the week's high with US NFP and tariff action in the pipe

Friday is a thin showing for the GBP on the economic calendar, with only low-tier Halifax Housing Prices indicators due at 07:30 GMT, with the m/m figure expected to come in at 0.3% (last 1.5%).

UK's upcoming Brexit meeting on PM May's 'third way' could face troubles

The UK's cabinet will be holding a meeting on Friday to give responses to Prime Minister Theresa May's new 'third option' Brexit proposal.

Goldman Sachs: US NFP preview

Goldman Sachs analysts are out with their US Non-Farm Payrolls preview, and they are calling for a better-than-consensus showing for the indicator.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Monday, Jul 02
24h
 
 
Wednesday, Jul 04
24h
 
 
Friday, Jul 06
06:00
 
1.5%
2.0%
06:00
 
0.3%
-1.0%
07:00
 
 
741B
07:30
 
0.3%
1.5%
07:30
 
1.8%
1.9%
12:30
 
195K
223K
12:30
 
34.5
34.5
12:30
 
2.8%
2.7%
12:30
 
3.8%
3.8%
12:30
 
62.7%
62.7%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
$-43.7B
$-46.2B
12:30
 
 
$50.47B
12:30
 
$-2.05B
$-1.90B
12:30
 
 
$48.56B
12:30
 
65.3%
65.3%
12:30
 
24.0K
-7.5K
12:30
 
5.8%
5.8%
14:00
 
63.2
62.5
14:00
 
 
69.5
14:30
 
75B
66B
17:00
 
 
858
19:30
 
 
19:30
 
 
19:30
 
 

 

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