Forex Today: Powell punches dollar, Boris' judgment day, Trump's tariffs decision, Lagarde's ECB debut

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 12:

The US dollar remains on the back foot after Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, clarified that his personal bar for raising rates is high. He first wants to see significant and persistent inflation before hiking. Earlier, the Fed left rates unchanged as expected and signaled no changes in 2020 via its dot-plot.

Sino-American relations: President Donald Trump is set to meet his trade negotiators today to discuss the next steps ahead of the December 15 deadline to impose new tariffs on China. Recent reports suggest that the world's largest economies have made progress in talks, but that Trump has yet to decide. Some speculate that the president will move forward with tariffs, and that is not priced in by markets.

UK elections: The latest opinion polls are showing a lead of around nine points for the Conservatives over Labour, but in many constituencies the race is tight. The recent YouGov MRP poll has shown a substantial narrowing of the projected Tory majority to 28 seats against 68 in its previous survey. GBP/USD has been hovering above 1.32 as tension is mounting. Rainy weather awaits voters.

See UK Elections Preview: Five scenarios for the vote and potentially wild GBP/USD reactions

EUR/USD is trading at six-week highs around 1.1150, buoyed by USD weakness and ahead of Christine Lagarde's first decision as president of the European Central Bank. Economists expect her to leave policies unchanged after the massive and controversial stimulus from her predecessor Mario Draghi. Recent economic figures have been encouraging but growth remains meager. Lagarde is set to announce a policy review for the first time in a decade.

See ECB Preview: How Lagarde's debut December decision may drive EUR/USD higher, three scenarios

The Swiss National Bank is set to leave its Libor Rate unchanged at -0.75%. The SNB has not altered its rate since removing the EUR/CHF peg in the infamous "SNBomb" in January 2015.

The US producer prices report is set to show moderate rises in November. The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) came out at 2.3% as expected.

USD/CAD is trading below 1.32 ahead of a speech by Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada. Oil prices have stabilized with WTI trading around $59.

Cryptocurrencies have been consolidating losses, with Bitcoin trading above $7,100.

News previews:

Swiss rate decision (USD/CHF)
ECB decision (EUR/USD)
UK elections (GBP/USD)

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

EUR/USD stays near 1.1650 with fading momentum

EUR/USD holds ground after five days of losses, trading around 1.1650 during the Asian hours on Friday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 39 trends lower, confirming fading momentum rather than oversold conditions.

GBP/USD remains below 1.3450, nine-day EMA

GBP/USD remains subdued for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Friday. The momentum indicator 14-day Relative Strength Index at 51.9 is neutral, reflecting slower momentum after firm recent readings. An RSI drop back beneath 50 would strengthen the case for a deeper pullback.

Gold edges lower as USD preserves its recent gains ahead of US NFP report

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from the vicinity of the $4,400 mark and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar preserves its gains registered over the past two weeks and touches a nearly one-month high, undermining the commodity.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple find key support, reviving rally hopes

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple steadied above key support levels on Friday after being rejected at mid-week resistance zones. The short-term recovery prospects remain intact if the top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization hold these support zones.

2026 economic outlook: Clear skies but don’t unfasten your seatbelts yet

Most years fade into the background as soon as a new one starts. Not 2025: a year of epochal shifts, in which the macroeconomy was the dog that did not bark. What to expect in 2026? The shocks of 2025 will not be undone, but neither will they be repeated.

Pepe Price Forecast: PEPE risks 100-day EMA fallout as bullish interest fades

Pepe is under extreme selling pressure, trading in the red for the fifth consecutive day, down 1% at press time on Friday. Pepe’s decline following a 72% hike last week suggests a likely profit-booking phase, while on-chain data indicates declining network activity.