Forex Today: Markets trade with caution amid impending US debt ceiling talks

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 18:

The financial markets trade with caution early Thursday, as the haggling over the US debt ceiling continues to underscore default fears. The Asian stocks witnessed limited gains, despite a solid upsurge in Wall Street indices.

On Wednesday, risk sentiment improved and limited the US Dollar’s upbeat momentum after President Biden expressed confidence there’ll be no US default while a rally in regional banks stocks also lifted the overall mood. Regional banks rally was led by Western Alliance Bancorp a day after the lender said its deposits grew by more than $2 billion in the quarter ended May 12.

At the time of writing, the US S&P 500 futures are down 0.11% on the day, hinting at a sense of caution, as investors weigh the latest developments surrounding the US debt ceiling issue. Citing a draft letter written by senators to President Biden, CNBC News reported early Thursday, “we write to urgently request that you prepare to exercise your authority under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which clearly states: 'the validity of the public debt of the United States...shall not be questioned.'"

"Using this authority would allow the United States to continue to pay its bills on-time, without delay, preventing a global economic catastrophe,” the letter appealed to Biden. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index struggles to extend its recovery momentum following the late pullback on Wednesday. The retreat in the US Treasury bond yields seems to be capping the upside in the US Dollar, for now.

Heading into a data-quiet European calendar, choppy trading is likely to extend within the G10 currencies, with the market sentiment set to the key driver. Later in American trading, attention will be on a bunch of mid-tier US economic data releases, including weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Existing Home Sales data.

Speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will also entertain traders in the sessions ahead.

EUR/USD is trading on the defensive below 1.0850, as the US Dollar holds the previous gains. Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland and France are closed in observance of Ascension Day, leaving the pair gyrating in a familiar range amid thin liquidity.

GBP/USD is holding losses after facing rejection just below 1.2500. The pair stays on the back foot in the European morning ahead of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony on Quantitative Tightening before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee (TSC) at 09:15 GMT. BoE policymakers Dave Ramsden and Ben Broadbent will also testify.

USD/JPY is consolidating losses near 137.50 after retreating from daily highs of 137.75 to 137.29, tracking the weakness in the US Treasury bond yields. The pair is in the red despite the mixed Japanese Trade data, which showed the country’s exports and imports data fell short of market expectations.

AUD/USD was a big mover in Asia, initially rebounding toward 0.6700 before reversing sharply to near 0.6630 on the back of disappointing Australian employment data. The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Thursday, net employment fell by 4,300 in April from March, when it rebounded by a revised 61,100. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7% during the same period. Currently, the pair is trading at around 0.6650, digesting upbeat comments from China’s Ambassador to Australia.

NZD/USD is regaining ground above 0.6250 as New Zealand’s yields spiked after the NZ Treasury called for a no recession in its Budget release.

USD/CAD is paring back gains toward 1.3450 amid a steady US Dollar and a minor pullback in WTI prices after Wednesday’s nearly 4% rally.

Gold price remains vulnerable while below the 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA), looking to extend the previous declines toward the $1,970 round figure.

Risk-averse trading is also witnessed across the crypto board, with Bitcoin edging lower toward $27,000 while Ethereum defends the $1,800 mark so far.