Forex Today: Markets quiet down ahead of mid-tier US data
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 5:
Following the wild fluctuations seen toward the end of the previous week, markets stabilized on Monday. Major currency pairs trade in relatively tight ranges early Tuesday as investors await the next catalyst. Later in the session, June Goods Trade Balance and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July will be featured in the US economic calendar.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.55% | |
| EUR | -0.40% | -0.26% | -0.31% | -0.34% | -0.21% | -0.09% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.26% | -0.02% | -0.09% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.39% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | 0.31% | 0.02% | -0.02% | 0.11% | 0.24% | 0.64% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.34% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.47% | |
| AUD | -0.33% | 0.21% | -0.05% | -0.11% | -0.12% | 0.13% | 0.34% | |
| NZD | -0.33% | 0.09% | -0.17% | -0.24% | -0.27% | -0.13% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | -0.55% | -0.13% | -0.39% | -0.64% | -0.47% | -0.34% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) Index held its ground on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged. The index clings to small daily gains in the European session on Tuesday and stays slightly below 99.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally higher after Wall Street's main indexes rose more than 1% on Monday.
US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he will raise the tariff rate on Indian imports "substantially," saying that India buys massive amounts of Russian oil and sells it on the open market for "big profits." The Indian Rupee came under heavy selling pressure following these remarks and the USD/INR pair rose about 0.8% on Monday before hitting a new all-time high at around 88.25 early Tuesday. According to Reuters, the Reserve Bank of India likely sold USD's via state-run banks to limit the Indian Rupee's losses. As of writing, USD/INR was trading marginally lower on the day near 88.00.
During the Asian trading hours, the data from China showed that the Caixin Services PMI improved to 52.6 in July from 50.6 in June. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 50.2. AUD/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades near 0.6450 in the early European session.
EUR/USD edges slightly lower after posting small losses on Monday and fluctuates below 1.1550. Eurostat will release Producer Price Index data for June later in the session. The EU announced on Monday that it will delay its planned retaliatory tariffs against the United States’ tariffs for six months, which were set to take effect on Thursday.
GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3300 on Tuesday. The UK Debt Management Office will hold a 10-year bond auction. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce monetary policy decisions.
USD/JPY fluctuates in a narrow channel near 147.50 after failing to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday.
Gold struggled to gather bullish momentum on Monday and posted small gains. XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around $3,370 early Tuesday.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
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