|

Forex Today: Majors tread water ahead of US PMI data

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 1:

The greenback outperformed its rivals on the last trading day of October and the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level since mid-October. At the start of the new month, major currency pairs stay relatively quiet and the trading action is likely to remain subdued due to thin trading conditions. In the second half of the day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October will be featured in the US economic docket.

Wall Street: US House Democrats want to vote on President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" and infrastructure bills on Tuesday after adding the latest revisions to the $1.75 trillion bill on Sunday. US stock index futures register modest gains in the early European session. 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is moving sideways around 1.5% but investors remain focused on the flattening yield curve. Meanwhile, the 10-year German bond yield approaches the positive territory for the first time since May 2019.

Over the weekend, World leaders voiced their commitment to solving the global supply chains issues. "We have to take action now, together with our partners in the private sector, to reduce the backlogs that we’re facing," Biden said at the G20 summit.

EUR/USD faced heavy bearish pressure in the second half of the day on Friday and erased all the gains it posted following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. On Monday, the pair continues to move sideways around 1.1550 but stays dangerously close to the 2021-low it set at 1.1524 in early October.

GBP/USD is trading at its weakest level since mid-October around 1.3660 pressured by the renewed Brexit concerns and broad-based USD strength.

AUD/USD edges lower at the start of the week but stays afloat above 0.7500 for the time being. Earlier in the day, the data from China showed that the Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.6 in October, surpassing the market expectation of 50.

USD/JPY shot above 114.00 on Friday and preserves its bullish momentum on Monday with the dollar strength providing a boost.

Gold failed to hold above $1,800 last week and staged a sharp U-turn on Friday. Currently, XAU/USD is moving sideways around $1,780.

Cryptocurrencies: After rebounding above $60,000, Bitcoin spent the weekend fluctuating in a relatively tight range with $62,000 area acting as near-term resistance. Ethereum staged a technical correction after renewing all-time highs but it doesn't seem to be having a difficult time holding above $4,000.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).