|

Forex Today: Majors tread water ahead of US PMI data

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 1:

The greenback outperformed its rivals on the last trading day of October and the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level since mid-October. At the start of the new month, major currency pairs stay relatively quiet and the trading action is likely to remain subdued due to thin trading conditions. In the second half of the day, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October will be featured in the US economic docket.

Wall Street: US House Democrats want to vote on President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" and infrastructure bills on Tuesday after adding the latest revisions to the $1.75 trillion bill on Sunday. US stock index futures register modest gains in the early European session. 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is moving sideways around 1.5% but investors remain focused on the flattening yield curve. Meanwhile, the 10-year German bond yield approaches the positive territory for the first time since May 2019.

Over the weekend, World leaders voiced their commitment to solving the global supply chains issues. "We have to take action now, together with our partners in the private sector, to reduce the backlogs that we’re facing," Biden said at the G20 summit.

EUR/USD faced heavy bearish pressure in the second half of the day on Friday and erased all the gains it posted following the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. On Monday, the pair continues to move sideways around 1.1550 but stays dangerously close to the 2021-low it set at 1.1524 in early October.

GBP/USD is trading at its weakest level since mid-October around 1.3660 pressured by the renewed Brexit concerns and broad-based USD strength.

AUD/USD edges lower at the start of the week but stays afloat above 0.7500 for the time being. Earlier in the day, the data from China showed that the Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.6 in October, surpassing the market expectation of 50.

USD/JPY shot above 114.00 on Friday and preserves its bullish momentum on Monday with the dollar strength providing a boost.

Gold failed to hold above $1,800 last week and staged a sharp U-turn on Friday. Currently, XAU/USD is moving sideways around $1,780.

Cryptocurrencies: After rebounding above $60,000, Bitcoin spent the weekend fluctuating in a relatively tight range with $62,000 area acting as near-term resistance. Ethereum staged a technical correction after renewing all-time highs but it doesn't seem to be having a difficult time holding above $4,000.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds above 1.1750 due to cautious trade before FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD holds ground after four days of little losses, trading around 1.1770 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains steady as US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting Minutes due later in the day, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD finds key support near 1.35 despite year-end grind

GBP/USD remains bolstered on the high end as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Cable caught a bullish tilt to keep price action on the high side of the 1.3500 handle, though year-end holiday volumes are unlikely to see significant progress in either direction as 2025 draws to a close.

Gold gains on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven demand

Gold price edges higher above $4,350 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries, adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).