Forex Today: Kiwi strongest in Asia, BOE FSR, Carney speech in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

A quiet Asian affair, with a mix of central bankers’ speeches dominating and driving the flows around the US dollar and Yen. As a result, the Japanese currency was the weakest, despite stalled US dollar recovery across its main competitors. Meanwhile, the Kiwi emerged the top gainer amid a position-related short squeeze.

Among other related markets, the Asian equities extended losses and moved away from decade highs, as China stocks weakness continued to weigh. Oil prices dropped on Keystone pipeline restart news, while gold prices traded on the back foot ahead of the Fed Chair nominee Powell’s testimony.

Main topics in Asia

Fed’s Powell: Fed expects interest rates to rise ‘somewhat further’

Fed’s Powell pledges "to respond decisively" to any new economic threats, cites need to retain "flexibility" in setting policy.

Fed’s Kashkari: would like the Fed to hold off on tightening until inflation was above 2%

Fed’s Kashkari is speaking on a panel at Winona State University's Town Hall Forum, in Minnesota. Fed’s Kashkari is a voting member and a dove.

BoJ Kuroda: ‘Don’t see easy monetary policy hurting Japan’s financial system so far’

Headlines crossing the wires again from the BoJ Governor Kuroda, as he speaking in Parliament alongside the Japanese PM Abe.

Fed's Dudley - US economy doesn't need tax stimulus

More comments from Fed's Dudley are crossing the wires via LiveSquawk…

New London office construction slows on Brexit jitters: Deloitte survey

According to the latest London Office Crane Survey, conducted by Deloitte Real Estate showed that the number of new office construction in London is falling.

Seoul, Washington monitoring possible N. Korea missile test - Yonhap

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported comments from the South Korean Army Col. Roh Jae-cheon, the spokesman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, noting that South Korea and the United States are closely watching the possibility of North Korea resuming provocative acts.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, investors brace for the German import prices data, BOE’s bank stress test results and FPC statement release, which will be followed by BOE Governor Carney’s speech at a press conference about the Financial Stability Report and Bank Stress Test Results. From the Euroland, Eurozone money supply data and German Gfk consumer climate will be reported.

Moving on, the NA session remains quite eventful, with the Canadian RMPI and US goods trade balance due on the cards ahead of Fedspeaks, with Powell’s Congressional address the key focus. Also, of note remains the US consumer confidence data, BOC Governor Poloz speech and RBNZ Financial Stability Report (FSR) slated for release later in the American mid-morning.

GBP/USD: Will the buyers retain control ahead of BOE’s FSR, Carney speech?

Fresh bids emerged at the hourly 100-SMA support of 1.3310 in early trades that allowed a tepid-recovery in the GBP/USD pair, as attention shifts towards the BOE Financial Stability Report (FSR) and Governor Carney’s speech due later today.

EUR/USD risk reversals contradict bearish pinbar, still gunning for 1.20?

Euro's drop from the previous day's high of 1.1975 to 1.1898 cannot be attributed to specific factor(s) but could be considered as a sign of bull market exhaustion.

TransCanada to restart Keystone pipeline on Tuesday, WTI set to fall further?

Calgary-based TransCanada Corp came out with a brief statement on Tuesday, via Reuters, noting that the Keystone crude oil pipeline that carries oil to the US refineries will restart at reduced pressure from today.

FX - Central Bank Speak to Tax Reform, Here's What to Watch

The Bank of England publishes its twice a year Financial Stability Review tomorrow and the release will be followed by a presentation by Governor Mark Carney who will share his recommendations for the banking sector.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Nov 27
20:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$152.6K
20:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			596.5K
20:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$195.1K
20:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-4.5K
20:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-136K
20:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$44K
21:00	KRW BOK Manufacturing BSI	84		87
22:30	USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
Tuesday, Nov 28
00:00	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
00:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			104.8
07:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)		0.6%	0.9%
07:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)		2.6%	3.0%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			101.4
07:00	GBP Bank Stress Test Results
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)		2.6%	2.5%
07:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
07:00	GBP Financial Stability Report
07:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
07:45	EUR Consumer Confidence		101	100
08:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		2.0%	2.1%
08:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			0.8%
08:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			4.6%
08:30	SEK Trade Balance (MoM)			2.6B
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.5%
09:00	EUR Private loans (YoY)		2.4%	2.5%
09:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			4.9%
09:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		5.1%	5.1%
12:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey		10.8	10.7
13:30	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.5%	0.3%
13:30	USD Goods Trade Balance		$-65.00B	$-64.14B
13:30	EUR Current Account Balance EUR			€-415B
13:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)		0.5%	-0.3%
13:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index		2.0%	-0.1%
13:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-0.7%
13:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			4.1%
14:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)		6.1%	5.9%
14:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)		0.6%	0.7%
14:15	USD FOMC Member Powell Speech
14:15	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
15:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index		14	12
15:15	USD FOMC Member Harker Speech
15:30	CAD Financial System Review
16:15	CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
16:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			1.13%
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.28%
20:00	NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
20:45	USD Treasury Sec Mnuchin Speech
21:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-6.356M
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales		-0.8%	1.9%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)		-0.2%	2.2%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)		0.2%	0.8%
Wednesday, Nov 29
24h	USD OPEC meeting
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			6.72%
06:00	ZAR Private Sector Credit			5.59%
07:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			2
07:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator			1.56
n/a	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			105.3
07:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)			0.9%
07:45	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.5%	0.5%
08:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.7%
08:30	SEK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			4%
08:30	SEK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			1.7%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.5%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.5%
09:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			59.4
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.29%
09:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			32
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			1.86%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.58%
09:30	GBP Consumer Credit			£1.606B
09:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		65.100K	66.232K
09:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			4.8%
09:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			-0.2%
09:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			2.1
09:30	EUR Business Confidence			2.1
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2%
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment		16.7	16.2
10:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		0.1	0.1
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		8.8	7.9
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		114.4	114.0
10:00	EUR Business Climate			1.44
11:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			0.2%
12:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.1%
12:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)			-1.4%
13:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.3%	-0.1%
13:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		1.8%	1.5%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.0%
13:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.7%	1.6%
13:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		2.2%	2.1%
13:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		3.2%	3.0%
13:30	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
13:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)		1.3%	1.3%
13:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)			1.5%
15:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			-5.4%
15:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		0.7%	0.0%
15:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-1.855M
17:00	EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
17:45	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
19:00	USD Fed's Beige Book
21:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			-2.3%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		1.9%	-1.0%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			2.6%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥231.3B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-324.5B
Thursday, Nov 30
00:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			22.2%
00:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			-10.1
24h	RON St. Andrew's Day
00:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			-6.1%
00:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence		-11	-10
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			5.4%
00:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.3%
00:30	AUD Private Capital Expenditure			0.8%
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.3
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI		51.5	51.6
01:00	KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision			1.25%
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)		-3.1%	-2.9%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-11.6%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			0.952M
06:00	NOK Retail Sales			-0.8%
06:45	CHF Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.5%	0.3%
06:45	CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		0.7%	0.3%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.4%	0.5%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			4.1%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			8.14B
07:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator			109.1
07:00	NOK Credit Indicator			5.8%
07:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			0.5%
07:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)			1.2%
08:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			42.77%
08:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.7%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.1%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.9%
08:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.1%
08:00	EUR EU Financial Stability Review
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			5.6%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.6%	5.6%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Change		-10K	-11K
09:00	EUR Unemployment		11.1%	11.1%
09:00	PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)			4.7%
09:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€2.618B
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.3%	1.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			0%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			0.1%
10:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.8%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			4,989.38B
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate		8.9%	8.9%
10:00	EUR ECB's Praet Speech
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.6%	1.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.1%	0.9%
11:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.8%
11:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			5.2%
12:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			12.4%
12:00	CLP Unemployment rate			6.7%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			4B
12:00	INR Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)			5.7%
13:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.8%
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$427.6B
13:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
13:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.1%
13:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
13:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
13:30	USD Personal Spending		0.3%	1.0%
13:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.3%
13:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.904M
13:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			239K
13:30	CAD Current Account			-16.32B
14:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.3%
14:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index			66.2
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate
15:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			-46B
18:00	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
21:45	NZD Terms of Trade Index			1.5%
22:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			51.1
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)			1.8%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth			-0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.6%	0.6%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			-0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0.1%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.7%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.8%	0.7%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0.2%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio		1.53	1.52
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate		2.8%	2.8%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		-0.4%	-0.3%
23:50	JPY Capital Spending			1.5%
Friday, Dec 01
24h	IDR Maulidur Rasul
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$7.14B
24h	RON National Day
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI			50.2
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			53.8
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI		50.9	51.0
05:00	PEN Inflation			-0.47%
05:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)			9.1%
06:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing			54.4
06:00	RUB HSBC Manufacturing PMI			51.1
06:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			59.3
07:00	PLN Purchasing Manager Index			53.4
07:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)			3.6%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.4%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product Qtr Prelim (YoY)			3%
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€928M
08:00	HUF Purchasing Manager Index			58.3
08:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			5%
08:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			55.8
08:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.4%
08:30	CZK Markit PMI			58.5
08:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index			62
08:30	SEK Current Account (QoQ)			39.5B
08:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			57.8
08:50	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			57.5
08:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		62.5	62.5
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.5%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.8%
09:00	TRY Exports			$13.5B
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			52.1
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			7.9%
09:00	EUR Unemployment			315.7K
09:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		60	60
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			89.04K
09:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			2.4%
09:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.5	56.3
11:00	BRL Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.2%
n/a	BRL Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			0.3%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$399.53B
12:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals
12:00	BRL HSBC PMI Manufacturing			51.2
13:00	ZAR Total New Vehicle Sales			51.037
n/a	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)			1.4%
13:00	CZK Budget Balance			26.46B
13:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ)			4.5%
13:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0.1%	-0.1%
13:30	CAD Net Change in Employment		10.0K	35.3K
13:30	CAD Unemployment Rate		6.2%	6.3%
13:30	CAD Participation rate			65.7%
14:05	USD Fed's Bullard speech
14:30	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
14:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.3
14:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI			53.8
15:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		58.5	58.7
15:00	USD ISM Prices Paid		68.5	68.5
15:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.5%	0.3%
15:15	USD FOMC Member Harker Speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			747
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
n/a	USD Total Vehicle Sales		17.6M	18.1M
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions
20:00	ARS Tax Revenue (MoM)			219.71B

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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