Forex Today: GBP weakest in Asia, Eyes on Eurozone CPI, US data

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today was mainly dominated by a broad based GBP weakness on latest poll, which revealed that UK Conservatives are projected to fall 16 seats short of overall majority in the upcoming June 8 election. The Antipodeans also remained under pressure, despite upbeat macro news from China, with the Chinese factories maintaining a steady growth last month. Meanwhile, RBNZ financial stability report, Wheeler’s comments and Australia’s private sector credit data was also overlooked by markets.

Looking ahead, we have an eventful EUR calendar, with German retail sales data out of the way, focus now remains on the Eurozone flash CPI estimate and unemployment rate. Meanwhile, FOMC member Kaplan’s speech, Canadian GDP and US pending home sales will be reported in the NA session, alongside the second-liner US Chicago PMI and Fed’s Beige book release.

Main topics in Asia

NZ: Financial Stability Review highlighted reduced risks in the financial system - TDS

The analysis team at TDS explains that the NZ’s semi-annual Financial Stability Review highlighted reduced risks in the financial system, although global uncertainty remains.

RBNZ's Wheeler: We are very pleased house price inflation has come off in recent months

RBNZ's Governor Graeme Wheeler is on the wires, via Reuters, stating that he's very pleased house price inflation has come off in recent months.

Japan's industrial production hits highest level since 2008

Japan’s industrial output rebounded in April, hitting the highest level since 2008, as overseas demand continued to support the nation’s economic recovery, Bloomberg reports.

Goldman Sachs downgrades Oil-price forecast

Goldman Sachs analysts, in their latest research note, downgraded the estimations for oil prices for this year, citing a potential rise in shale gas production, new projects and OPEC restrictions, CNBC reports.

Key Focus ahead

Eurozone: Expect a further decrease in unemployment rate in April to 9.4% - Danske Bank

According to the research team at Danske Bank, the euro-area unemployment figures are likely to show that the labour market continued to strengthen in April.

Euro area HICP: Headline rate to fall back to 1.6% y/y from April’s 1.9% - RBC CM

In view of analysts at RBC Capital Markets, the combined effect of Easter related price rises dropping out of the index and falling petrol pump and home heating oil prices should combine to push euro area inflation lower in May.

Australian CAPEX survey to provide some further guidance on growth prospects - Westpac

Andrew Hanlan, Senior Economist at Westpac, explains that the Australia’s ABS survey of private business investment plans, the CAPEX survey, will provide some further guidance on growth prospects.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Wednesday, May 31
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)	0.4%		0.4% Revised from 0.3%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)	4.9%		5.0%
04:00	JPY Vehicle Production (YoY)	16.3%		4.5% Revised from 4.7%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)	-0.2%		1.1%
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)	1.9%	-1.5%	0.2%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts	1.004M		0.984M
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.2%	0.2%	0.2% Revised from 0.1%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.9%	2.3%	2.9% Revised from 2.3%
06:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator	1.48		1.44 Revised from 1.50
06:00	NOK Credit Indicator	5.1%	5.3%	5.2% Revised from 5.3%
06:45	EUR Producer Prices (MoM)			-0.5%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		1.1%	1.4%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-4.49B
07:00	DKK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.3%	0.5%
07:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.2%
07:55	EUR Unemployment Change		-15K	-15K
07:55	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.8%	5.8%
08:00	EUR Unemployment		11.6%	11.7%
08:00	PLN Gross Domestic Product Qtr (YoY)			4%
08:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.2B
08:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			22.2
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)		£4.5B	£4.7B
08:30	GBP Consumer Credit		£1.500B	£1.624B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals		66.050K	66.837K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			6.6%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)		0.4%	0.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.5%	2.0%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		-0.2%	0.8%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.2%	0.4%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			9.6%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate		9.4%	9.5%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.5%	1.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.0%	1.2%
10:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.8%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			1%
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			6,056.14B
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			4.4%
11:30	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			5%
12:00	USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
12:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M		-0.83%	-1.10%
12:00	CLP Unemployment rate		6.7%	6.6%
12:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2%	2%
12:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.3%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)		5.50B	5.22B
12:00	INR Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)		7.1%	7.0%
12:00	RUB Gross Domestic Product Monthly (YoY)			-1%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (QoQ)		3.9%	2.6%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0.2%	0.0%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.1%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2%
13:00	BRL Unemployment Rate		13.9%	13.7%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		57.0	58.3
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			0.5%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		0.3%	-0.8%
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate			9.7%
18:00	USD Fed's Beige Book
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-0.4%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.5M
21:00	BRL Interest Rate Decision		10.25%	11.25%
22:45	NZD Terms of Trade Index		3.9%	5.7%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)		1.95%	1.90%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth		0.1%	-0.1%
23:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			59.2
23:50	JPY Capital Spending			3.8%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥778.5B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-26.4B
Thursday, Jun 01
24h	IDR Pancasila Day
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$12.98B
00:10	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52
01:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)		0.3%	-0.1%
01:30	AUD Private Capital Expenditure		0.8%	-2.1%
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI		50.1	50.3
05:00	JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY)			5.4%
05:45	CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			0.6%
05:45	CHF Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)			0.1%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.4%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)		2.4%	2.6%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product Qtr Prelim (YoY)			1.6%
06:00	RUB HSBC Manufacturing PMI			52.4
06:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)			38.6%
06:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			62.5
07:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.9%
07:00	EUR Unemployment			354.1K
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€956M
07:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing			55
07:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		54.7	54.5
07:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)			2.1%
07:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index			57.4
07:30	SEK Current Account (QoQ)			64.3B
07:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.0	56.2
07:50	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		54	54
07:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		59.4	59.4
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		0.8%	0.8%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			48.2
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		57	57
08:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.5	57.3
09:00	TRY Exports			$13.616B
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.81%
n/a	GBP 10-y Bond Auction			1.129%
10:30	ZAR Unemployment Rate (%)			26.5%
10:30	ZAR Unemployment Total			5.781M
11:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)			36.602K
12:00	CZK Budget Balance			6.27B
12:15	USD ADP Employment Change		185K	177K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.923M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			234K
13:00	BRL HSBC PMI Manufacturing			50.1
13:00	ZAR Total New Vehicle Sales			34,956
13:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI			55.9
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI			52.5
14:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		54.5	54.8
14:00	USD ISM Prices Paid		67.0	68.5
14:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.5%	-0.2%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			75B
15:00	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-4.432M
n/a	USD Total Vehicle Sales		16.97M	16.88M
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)			2.7%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)			0.9%
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)			19.8%
Friday, Jun 02
24h	EUR Republic Day
00:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			-1.1%
04:00	IDR Core Inflation (YoY)			3.28%
04:00	IDR Inflation (MoM)			0.09%
04:00	IDR Inflation (YoY)			4.17%
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index			43.2
07:00	DKK Unemployment Rate			3.4%
07:00	EUR Unemployment Change			-129.3K
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			97.16K
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			2.8%
08:30	GBP PMI Construction		52.7	53.1
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			-0.5%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	-0.3%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		4.6%	3.9%
11:00	BRL Trade Balance			6.97B
12:00	BRL Industrial Output (MoM)			-1.8%
12:00	BRL Industrial Output (YoY)			1.1%
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate		4.4%	4.4%
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate			62.9%
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)			2.5%
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.4	34.4
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		183K	211K
12:30	USD Trade Balance		$-46.0B	$-43.7B
12:30	CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ)			0.4%
12:30	CAD International Merchandise Trade		$-0.07B	$-0.14B
12:30	CAD Exports			$46.98B
13:30	CAD Imports			$47.11B
13:45	USD ISM New York index			55.8
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			722
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$159.8K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$40.4K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			373K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-23.9K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-51.7K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€64.8K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$2.6K

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.