Forex Today: GBP tracks Oil recovery, EZ PMIs, CAD CPI & US data eyed

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today witnessed yet another dull and sedated Asian session, although risk reset emerged the underlying theme amid a minor recovery staged by oil prices. Higher-yielding currencies such as the AUD, NZD and GBP cheered better risk sentiment, while Theresa’s May post-Brexit EU citizens’ rights offer provided extra legs to the risk recovery. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair traded modestly flat, in a wait-and-see mode, in absence of fresh fundamental drivers in Asia, except for the downbeat Japanese manufacturing PMI release.

Later today, the EUR calendar offers economic data of note for the first time this week, with a raft of flash manufacturing and services PMI reports due to be released from across the Euro area. Meanwhile, the UK docket continues to remain data-dry.

Moving on, we have an eventful NA session, as Canada is likely to publish the crucial inflation figures, which may add to the rate hike expectations, especially after yesterday’s solid retail sales data. Meanwhile, the US flash manufacturing and services PMI reports will be also published, followed by new home sales and FOMC member Powell’s speech.

Main topics in Asia

Brexit: Theresa May to offer “UK settled” status to EU citizens

"No-one will face a cliff edge," Theresa May said at a Brussels summit and added that the EU citizens legally residing in the UK would have the same rights as British citizens after Brexit.

Japan flash manufacturing PMI drops to 7-month lows in June

Reuters out with more insights on the Japanese manufacturing PMI numbers released for June earlier today.

Germany’s Merkel: UK offer on EU citizens' rights was "good start", but…

Reuters reports comments that crossed the wires from the German Chancellor Angela Merkel last hours, after Theresa May outlined her plans to offer “UK settled” status to EU citizens at the Brussels Summit.

Official: Arab states send Qatar 13 demands to end crisis - RTRS

Reuters quoted an official of one of the four Arab states that have boycotted Qatar over alleged links to terrorism, citing that Qatar has been sent a list of 13 demands, in an effort end the political rift.

Key Focus ahead

Eurozone: Expect slightly better PMI prints today - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for slightly better prints for today’s Eurozone PMI estimates for June.

US data reviewed and previewed for tomorrow - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered a review of today's US data and a preview of the remaining key data release for the US.

Will GBP/USD bulls be able to defend the weekly 50-MA support of 1.2660?

Oil recovery may lead to risk-reset in the markets and yield a steeper treasury yield curve and a strong US dollar. Thus, the GBP / USD pair may end the week below the 50-week MA if the oil recovery gathers steam.

Is Brent oil poised for technical recovery?

The technical recovery in oil would falter if Baker Hughes reports a big jump in the oil rigs.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Jun 22
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity	23		-1
18:00	MXN Central Bank Interest Rate	7.0%	7.0%	6.5%
18:00	GBP MPC Member Forbes Speech
19:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)	$-642M		$-139M
Friday, Jun 23
24h	EUR Midsummer’s Eve
24h	SEK Midsummer´s Eve
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI	52.0	53.4	53.1
04:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)	0.4%		0.4%
04:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)	3.2%		3.4%
05:00	SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)	1.4		0.4
06:45	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1%	1%
06:45	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.4%	0.4%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			3.3%
07:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		57.0	57.2
07:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		54.0	53.8
07:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		56.7	56.9
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		57.3	57.4
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.5	55.4
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		59.0	59.5
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)			0.5%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)			7.2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)			-4.2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)			9.2%
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		56.6	56.8
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		56.8	57.0
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		56.2	56.3
11:30	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			109.2
11:30	TRY Capacity Utilization			78.8%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			5.1%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$381.17B
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation		0.12%	0.24%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)			0%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)			1.1%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.5%	1.6%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.4%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)		3.0%	6.1%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			-1.3%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator		-0.8	-1.1
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		53.0	52.7
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			53.9
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI		53.7	53.6
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.597M	0.569M
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)		5.4%	-11.4%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			747
18:15	USD FOMC Member Powell Speech
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$57.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$190.3K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			359K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-39.4K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-50.6K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€79.1K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-1.5K
Saturday, Jun 24
24h	EUR Midsummer day
24h	SEK Midsummer Day
Sunday, Jun 25
24h	IDR Hari Raya Idul Fitri
24h	SGD Hari Raya Puasa
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)			0.7%
23:50	JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
Monday, Jun 26
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Hari Raya Idul Fitri
24h	COP Sacred Heart
24h	INR Idul Fitr
24h	SGD Hari Raya Puasa
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			5%
07:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)			5.9%
07:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)			12.9%
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate			114.6
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment			123.2
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations			106.5
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)			7.7%
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			40.75K
10:00	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		-0.5%	-0.8% Revised from -0.7%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation		0.3%	-0.5% Revised from -0.4%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.6%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate			3.5%
14:00	USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index			17.2
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.01%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.112%
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction			1.316%
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			108
21:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)			$572M
21:45	NZD Exports			$4.75B
21:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)			$-3.48B
21:45	NZD Imports			$4.17B
Tuesday, Jun 27
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
06:00	EUR Industrial Confidence			8
06:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			24.1
07:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.8%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.3%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			7.2%
07:30	SEK Trade Balance (MoM)			-2.6B
08:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			105.4
08:00	EUR Business Confidence			106.9
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.15%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.88%
10:00	GBP Inflation Report Hearings
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			2%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			0.7%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.8%
13:00	USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)		5.9%	5.9%
13:00	MXN Trade Balance s/a, $			$-0.297B
13:00	MXN Trade Balance, $			$0.617B
13:30	BRL Current Account			$1,200B
n/a	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index			1
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.85%
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction			1.831%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.72M
Wednesday, Jun 28
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
06:00	CHF UBS Consumption Indicator			1.48
06:45	EUR Consumer Confidence			102
08:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			58
08:00	EUR Private loans (YoY)			2.4%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			5%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			4.9%
08:00	CHF ZEW Survey - Expectations			30.8
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)			1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			-0.1%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.6%
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			-0.5%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-68B
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			-3.3%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)		0.6%	-1.3%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-2.451M
15:00	USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			2.06%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥1,090.1B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-331.6B
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)			3.2%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)			1.4%
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales			1.1%
Thursday, Jun 29
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
24h	CLP Saint Peter and Saint Paul
01:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			38.3%
01:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			14.9
01:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			0.8%
06:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey			10.4
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)			-0.2%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)			2.1%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			2%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.9%
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)			£4.3B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals			64.645K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			1.2%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			8.2%
08:30	EUR Business Confidence			2
08:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			0.1
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.86%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.09%
09:00	EUR Consumer Confidence			-1.3
10:00	EUR Services Sentiment			13
10:00	EUR Industrial Confidence			2.8
10:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator			109.2
10:00	EUR Business Climate			0.9
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)			1.4%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)			-0.2%
12:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			-0.93%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			241K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.944M
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index			2.2%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.2%	1.2%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)			2.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)			2.1%
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			0.6%
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$406.4B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			61B
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			-7.6%
23:01	GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence			-5
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)			0.1%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)			0.3%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.4%
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)			0%
23:30	JPY Jobs/applicants ratio			1.48
23:30	JPY Unemployment Rate			2.8%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)			-1.4%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			5.7%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)			4%
Friday, Jun 30
24h	IDR Cuti Bersama
00:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			5.1B
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.5
01:00	CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI			51.2
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			4.9%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.4%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-0.2%
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)			1.9%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			1.004M
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
06:00	EUR Import Price Index (YoY)			6.1%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.9%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.2%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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