|

Forex Today: Flight to safety intensifies as Russia unleashes attack on Ukraine

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 24:

Russia has launched an attack on Ukraine during the Asian trading hours and triggered an intense flight to safety in financial markets. Traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold, the JPY and the CHF, continue to gather strength early Thursday and the US Dollar Index trades at its highest level in nearly a month above 96.50. Later in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second estimate of the fourth-quarter GDP data. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims and January New Home Sales will be featured in the US economic docket as well. Investors, however, will remain focused on headlines surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Following reports of Russia carrying out missile strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure and border guards, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a country-wide martial law. The latest developments suggest that the Russian military is moving towards the Ukrainian border from Belarus. Furthermore, Russia is reportedly unleashing cyberattacks and Ukraine is said to have shot down several Russian planes and a helicopter.

Reflecting the risk-averse market environment, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down 5% and US stocks futures indexes are losing between 2% and 2.3%. Crude oil prices are surging higher and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was last seen trading at its highest level since August 2014 above $96.

Trading in the Moscow Exchange has been suspended and the Russian rouble on the interbank market fell to a new record low against the dollar. USD/RUB was last seen rising more than 7% on the day at 87.40. 

Gold surged higher on Thursday and reached its strongest level since early January near $1,950. XAU/USD is up more than 1.5% in the early European session, trading around $1,940. 

EUR/USD slumped to its weakest level in more than three weeks near 1.1200 before staging a rebound. The pair is moving near mid-1.1200s and down 0.5% on a daily basis.

EUR/JPY is down 1% at 128.80, AUD/JPY is losing 0.9% at 82.40, EUR/CHF, which touched its lowest level since 2015 at 1.02911 earlier in the session, seems to have steadied above 1.0300 for the time being.

GBP/USD is falling for the third straight day and tests 1.3500. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from the UK.

Despite the broad-based dollar strength, the USD/JPY is trading in the negative territory near 114.50, pressured by the sharp drop witnessed in US T-bond yields.

Bitcoin is trading at its lowest level in a month near $35,000 and losing more than 6% on the day. Ethereum is already down nearly 10% on Thursday and continues to edge lower after breaking below $2,500.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD gains traction above 1.1500 constrained below 100-day SMA

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. The Euro edges higher against the US Dollar after reports that US President Donald Trump had called off an attack on Iran and talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations.

Gold's struggle with 21-day SMA extends ahead of US-Iran talks

Gold keeps its range around $4,050 early Monday, consolidating the previous decline. The US Dollar holds losses, fuelled by the USD/JPY slump and Mideast diplomacy hopes. Gold awaits a clear directional breakthrough, but sellers likely have the upper hand on the 1D chart.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

Solana risks a steeper decline below $70 despite steady ETF inflows

Solana (SOL) is trading in the red, losing bullish momentum and remaining capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $75.68. SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds show resilience with a monthly inflow of $14.62 million in July, while the near-term retail support wanes with the funding rate turning negative.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.