|

Forex Today: Banking woes, US NFP to keep volatility high ahead of weekend

Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 5:

Investors remain on edge on the last trading day of the week as they keep a close eye on the performance of regional bank stocks in the US while awaiting the April jobs report. The European economic docket will feature Retail Sales data for April and Statistics Canada will release the labor market data later in the day. With the Federal Reserve's (Fed) blackout period ending on Thursday, comments from policymakers will be watched by market participants as well.

Safe-haven flows dominated the financial markets on Thursday, helping the US Dollar erase some of the losses it suffered in the Fed aftermath. PacWest Bancorp shares hit a record low after the opening bell on Thursday after the lender announced that it was in talks with potential partners about strategic asset sales. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that Western Alliance was also exploring similar options, triggering a selloff in other regional bank stocks as well. Later in the day, Western Alliance shares rebounded after the bank denied the report, calling it 'shameful'. Early Friday, US stock index futures are up between 0.2% and 0.4%.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US are forecast to rise by 179,000 in April following the 236,000 increase recorded in March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5% and the annual wage inflation is seen holding steady at 4.2%. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls Bank Preview: Smaller, but still positive change in employment.

EUR/USD declined below 1.1000 on Thursday but managed to stage a rebound. The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key rates by 25 basis points as expected. During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde clarified that they were not going to pause the policy tightening, adding that they had "more ground to cover." Although Lagarde's hawkish comments helped the Euro find demand, the risk-averse market environment limited the pair's upside. In the early European morning on Friday, EUR/USD was trading modestly higher on the day slightly below 1.1050. Meanwhile, the data from Germany showed that Factory Orders slumped by 10.7% on a monthly basis in March, compared to the market expectation for a decrease of 2.2%.

GBP/USD closed modestly higher on Thursday as the sharp decline seen in EUR/GBP helped Pound Sterling stay resilient against the USD. The pair continues to stretch higher early Friday and was last seen trading at its highest level in nearly a year above 1.2600.

USD/JPY fell for the third straight day on Thursday before stabilizing slightly above 134.00 early Friday. Earlier in the day, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake hit Japan's Ishikawa Prefecture. This development, however, doesn't seem to be having an impact on the pair's action.

Gold shined as the go-to safe-haven asset on Thursday and climbed to $2,060 during the American trading hours. XAU/USD retreated below $2,050 early Friday but clings to impressive weekly gains.

US April Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing Gold price's reaction to NFP surprises.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said in a prepared speech at the Toronto Region Board of Trade that if they start to see signs that inflation is likely to get stuck materially above their 2% target, they are prepared to raise interest rates further. These hawkish comments and a late rebound seen in crude oil prices helped the CAD outperform the USD on Thursday and USD/CAD lost more than 100 pips. The pair trades in negative territory near 1.3500 early Friday. The Unemployment Rate in Canada is forecast to tick up to 5.1% in April from 5% in March with a +20K in Net Change in Employment.

Bitcoin closed modestly lower on Thursday but started to edge higher early Friday. BTC/USD was last seen rising more than 1% on the day near $29,200. Ethereum retreated on Thursday but returned to the $1,900 area ahead of the weekend.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.