Forex Today: Aussie higher on Aus jobs, UK retail sales, US tax vote – Key


Forex today witnessed a better sentiment towards risk assets, tracking the risk-recovery seen on Wall Street and Treasury yields overnight. As a result, the US dollar extended its rebound across the board, leaving most majors on the back foot. However, the Aussie bucked the trend and edged higher on the release of the Australian jobs report, although the rally fizzled soon. The Kiwi was the weakest across the fx board, as the markets digested the latest NZ consumer confidence data, which hit a seven-year low in Nov.

Among other related markets, the Asian equities attempted a recovery in tandem with oil prices, while gold traded little changed amid increased uncertainty ahead of the US tax vote.

Main topics in Asia

Australia employment rate drops to 5.4% in October, job growth slows

The jobless rate in Australia fell to 5.4% in October, but the pace of growth in jobs slowed. The economy added 3.7K jobs missing the estimated figure of 17.5K. 

China's US Treasury holdings fell for the first time in 8 months in September

The latest data from the US Treasury Department show China's holdings of the US treasury securities dropped for the first time in eight months in September, but still remain the largest holder of securities.

NZ consumer confidence slips, but above historical average - ANZ

In respect to the ANZ NZ consumer confidence gauge today, analysts at ANZ explained that on many levels, it is encouraging that headline consumer sentiment is still holding at reasonable levels. 

BOC’s Wilkins: At time of rate hikes we didn't think growth pace was sustainable

More comments from the Bank of Canada (BOC) Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, from her speech to the Money Marketeers at NY University, via Reuters.

US tax reform: Republicans have the votes to win on House tax bill - White house Reporters

Reporters from the White House say GOP leaders are confident they have the numbers to pass the tax bill today. 

Key Focus ahead

Focus now shifts towards the key UK retail sales data, which will hold the key for BOE’s next hawkish policy move, while the Eurozone final CPI release will also keep the EUR, GBP traders busy.

In the NA session, Canada will see the releases of the foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales data, while a fresh batch of US economic updates will be eyed alongside the speech from the BOE Governor Carney.

The US jobless claims, import prices, Philly Fed manufacturing index and industrial output figures are due on the cards. Meanwhile, the speeches from the SNB board member Maechler and FOMC member Kaplan will also draw some attention in the US.

GBP/USD - Eyes range breakout, lead indicators say UK retail sales may miss estimates

From Nov, 7, the GBP/USD pair has been restricted largely to a narrow trading range of 1.31 to 1.32. Occasional dips below 1.31 have been short-lived, while the bulls have struggled to keep the pair above 1.32 handle.

EUR/USD: 1.1800 – a tough nut to crack? Eyes on US tax vote

The EUR/USD pair traded weaker below 1.18 handle in the Asian trades, as the US dollar remained broadly supported ahead of the key vote on the US tax reform plan due later on Thursday.

UK politics to remain main driver of GBP ahead of EU Summit - Nomura

Nomura FX Strategy Research Team offers its outlook on the GBP ahead of the important EU summit on 14-15 December.

More market moving US data events coming up - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlooks for the US data ahead while markets also brace for the vote on US tax reform in a full House.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Nov 16
09:30
 
0.0%
-0.7%
09:30
 
-0.4%
1.6%
09:30
 
-0.6%
1.2%
09:30
 
0.1%
-0.8%
10:00
 
0.9%
1.1%
10:00
 
0.1%
0.4%
10:00
 
1.4%
1.4%
10:00
 
-0.1%
0.4%
n/a
 
 
1.32%
13:30
 
1.895M
1.901M
13:30
 
235K
239K
13:30
 
0.4%
0.7%
13:30
 
2.5%
2.7%
13:30
 
0.4%
0.8%
13:30
 
 
2.9%
13:30
 
25.0
27.9
13:30
 
-0.3%
1.6%
13:30
 
 
$12.04B
13:30
 
$10.68B
$9.85B
14:00
 
 
14:00
 
 
14:00
 
 
14:10
 
 
14:15
 
0.5%
0.3%
14:15
 
76.3%
76.0%

 

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