|

BOC’s Wilkins: At time of rate hikes we didn't think growth pace was sustainable

More comments from the Bank of Canada (BOC) Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, from her speech to the Money Marketeers at NY University, via Reuters.

During periods of uncertainty like today, a cautious approach to monetary policy may be prudent.

"Caution has its limits"; there are complex trade-offs, including those related to financial stability.

"Uncertainty is not a reason for paralysis in decision making".

Monetary policy may respond to negative shocks more aggressively than usual when near the effective lower bound.

The policy is asymmetric in that it responds more aggressively to negative shocks than to positive shocks.

One reason for caution in Canada is greater uncertainty about the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

Higher household debt has likely heightened the sensitivity of spending to rate increases; difficult to know by how much.

Another reason for caution is wanting to avoid having to reverse policy abruptly in the future.

We will be closer to the effective lower bound more often than in the past because of lower neutral interest rate.

Bank particularly focused on data on how wages, potential output are progressing, and effects of two earlier rate hikes.

There are trade-offs when it comes to monetary policy, micro, macroprudential measures help most on financial stability.

There was no sense at the time of rate hikes that we thought the pace of growth at the time was sustainable.

Recent OSFI rules are good measures but warrants watching impact.

Prudent for the central bank to take uncertainty about inflation seriously and watch the data.

The idea of a 'hot or not' economy not really embedded in our thinking.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1800 ahead of Fed Minutes

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and continues to move sideways below 1.1800 for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as markets remain in holiday mood. Later in the American session, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the December policy meeting.

GBP/USD retreats to 1.3500 area following earlier climb

GBP/USD loses its traction and trades flat on the day near 1.3500 after rising to the 1.3530 area early Tuesday. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility. The Fed will publish December meeting minutes in the late American session.

Gold aims to regain the ground lost

Gold gathers recovery momentum and advances toward $4,400 on Tuesday after losing more than 4% on Monday. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Tron steadies as Justin Sun invests $18 million in Tron Inc.

Tron (TRX) trades above $0.2800 at press time on Monday, hovering below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2859.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).