Today, we have an all-important release of the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January meeting, which is due at 1900GMT.

As we head closer to the release timings, the economists and researchers of major banks are expecting that the Fed minutes should reiterate an overall dovish message, after a range of Fed speakers have shown their support for patience, since the January meeting.

Barclays

“Look to the minutes for insights as to whether FOMC participants see the rate hike cycle as essentially complete or members still expect further rate hikes as part of the baseline outlook.”

“We expect the minutes to signal that the committee is prepared to release its plan for the end of the runoff of its balance sheet "soon", which we believe will come at the March meeting.”

Nordea Markets

“All eyes are on the Fed this week, when the meeting minutes of the big U-turn FOMC meeting are out on Wednesday. 

“We look for clues on whether the Fed will be more concrete on a potential timing for the end of QT. For technical reasons, we know that quantitative tightening cannot run forever. The system probably needs at least USD 1,000bn in excess reserves, which could already be reached before the end of 2019 on our projections.”

“Consensus has moved towards an October stop to QT (Fed’s Brainard said that she favoured a late 2019 QT-end on Thursday), so the Fed will have to hint at an earlier stop than that to really surprise dovishly now. We don’t put a large probability on that. The earlier a QT stop, the worse a scenario for the USD, the better a scenario for risky assets. We wouldn’t bet on dovish surprises though.”

Danske Bank

“We will be interested to hear the different stances within the Fed on further hikes now it has hinted it is ‘patient’ about raising rates again. Furthermore, we will monitor any insights it might have on how it plans the balance sheet reduction.”

HSBC

“The release of FOMC’s 29-30 January meeting minutes should give investors a better read on how policymakers reached their decision to shift to a more “patient” approach. The minutes should also provide an update on the US Federal Reserve’s current policy framework review.”

Nomura

“We expect more clarity regarding the FOMC's plans for balance sheet normalization from the minutes of the January FOMC meeting. The minutes from the two preceding meetings - November and December - included important sections on the balance sheet.”

“We believe the corresponding section of the January minutes will confirm the Committee's plans to end balance sheet normalization by end-2019.”

“The Committee has been clear that rates are on hold for the time being. A key issue is the set of circumstances that would drive the FOMC to raise rates.”

“It will also be interesting to see if there was discussion of what would drive the Committee to lower interest rates.”

TD Securities

“Minutes from the January FOMC meeting will be published at 14:00 ET. Given the range of speakers since the January meeting who support "patience," the Fed minutes should reiterate a dovish message overall — but could risk highlighting some disagreements on the FOMC.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD retreats towards 0.6900 amid cautious markets

AUD/USD retreats towards 0.6900 amid cautious markets

AUD/USD is easing towards 0.6900, fading a renewed uptick amid a cautious market mood. The US dollar is attempting a bounce, as investors rethink the impact of aggressive Fed rate hikes on growth. A dip in the Australian business confidence survey also weighs on the AUD. 

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY drops towards 135.00 amid risk-aversion

USD/JPY drops towards 135.00 amid risk-aversion

USD/JPY is heading south to test 135.00, having failed to sustain above 135.50. The pair is falling in tandem with the US Treasury yields while the return of risk-off flows underpins the USD bounce. Focus shifts to US data. 

USD/JPY News

Gold bounces off $1,820 support zone, focus on US data, Fed’s Powell

Gold bounces off $1,820 support zone, focus on US data, Fed’s Powell

Gold Price consolidates recent losses at around $1,825.00 during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the yellow metal takes clues from the market’s cautious optimism ahead of the key US consumer sentiment numbers and the much-awaited central bankers’ debate at the ECB forum.

Gold News

How trade SafeMoon price for a quick profit?

How trade SafeMoon price for a quick profit?

SafeMoon price gets ready for a quick run-up amid a bearish challenge. As a result, SAFEMOON has been consolidating below a crucial resistance barrier. Investors can expect the altcoin to resume its run-up soon.

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures