On Thursday, the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting will be published and will be a key release for markets, according to analysts at Nordea Markets.
“The Fed lifted its IOER rate by only 20 bp in June, even as it hiked the target range for the effective Fed Funds rate by 25bp. The Fed opted for this technical change as a result of unexpected upward pressures on the effective Fed Funds rate in recent months.”
“Minutes may contain further clues on how the Fed might react should the upward pressures on the EFF rate continue. If the Fed delivers according to the dot plot, we expect the fair value of the 10yr Treasury yield to rise to the range of 3.25%-3.50%, once/if the trade war fog dissipates. We still see signs that the USD could continue to perform in the current environment.”
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