Fed's Goolsbee: CPI data indicate inflation on 2% path
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee on Friday marked the latest inflation report as “excellent.” Goolsbee further stated that the reports prove that the central bank is on track to meet its 2% target.
Key quotes
June CPI report 'excellent,' improvement on shelter inflation 'profoundly encouraging’.
I think this is what the path to 2% looks like.
As inflation falls, leaving Fed policy rate steady means Fed is tightening policy.
The reason to tighten policy would be if economy is overheating.
We are not overheating.
Labor market is cooling, still strong.
It doesn't feel like the beginning of a recession.
Financial conditions are pretty restrictive.
I don't like tying our hands on policy decisions.
Need to decide when to cut rates, not trying to figure out a rate path for next seven months.
Market reaction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading unchanged on the day at 104.45, as of writing.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
