|

Fed's Evans: Good reason to think economy will do very well even as rates rise

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on Tuesday said that there is good reason to think the US economy will do very well even as rates rise, reported Reuters. The Fed needs to be mindful of a possible wage-price spiral, he added, noting that Fed needs to monitor for this. 

Additional Takeaways:

  • Looking at the composition of inflation, the Fed can take note of some "positive" developments if they continue. 
  • It's still too early to think the inflation challenges we are facing now are changing, but they could be. 
  • If the Fed were to do a couple of 50 bps increases, it could get interest rates to the 2.25%-2.5% neutral rate by end of the year. 
  • If the Fed doesn't see inflation coming down, it is going to raise rates above neutral. 
  • If the Fed does see inflation coming down, then neutral rates could be about right. 
  • If inflation reaccelerated, that would be a cause of great concern. 
  • "My expectation is that we'll need to raise rates above neutral."

Evan's remarks come after St Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated calls for interest rates to hit 3.5% by the year's end and called inflation "far too high". Bullard also hinted he was open to a 75 bps rate move. His remarks have been attributed as adding fresh impetus to the ongoing global bond sell-off that saw US 30-year yields hit 3.0% for the first time since April 2019 on Tuesday.

Author

Joel Frank

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

More from Joel Frank
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD bounces off lows, back above 1.3200

After bottoming out near 1.3160, GBP/USD manages to regain a bit of shine and reclaim the 1.3200 mark and beyond at the end of the week. Stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data seem to be helping the British Pound limit its losses, while the chaotic UK political environment keeps the bulls at bay for now.

EUR/USD looks consolidative around 1.1460

EUR/USD stages a modest rebound after slipping to a three-month low below 1.1420 at the end of the week. That said, the pair now looks to consolidate humble gains just above 1.1460 despite growing uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations, which keeps the US Dollar’s downside contained.

Gold slips back to six-day lows, targets $4,100

Gold retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, eroding gains seen in the first half of the week and approaching the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal continues to face headwinds from the Fed's hawkish stance and renewed uncertainty surrounding the next round of US-Iran negotiations.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation
Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."
The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.