|

Fed's Daly doesn't rule out July rate cut, but doesn't signal eagerness either

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly noted on Thursday that, despite overall progress on inflation and price stability, price pressures still remain a key issue for the Fed, making it difficult to move policy rates amid ongoing turmoil at the outer edges of economic data.

Key highlights

Still have some work to do on inflation.
We have solid growth, solid labor market.
What's bothersome still is we haven't achieved price stability.
Focus is on inflation; other things don't distract us.
Policy, economy in a good place.
Rates have been restrictive for a significant number of years.
June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some of effect of tariffs.
Other parts of inflation are coming down.

Have not seen any evidence that tariffs are spilling over more broadly into persistent inflation.
May end up with more muted tariff impact than we thought.
Don't want to lower rates preemptively.
Two rate cuts this year 'reasonable' outlook.
Businesses are optimistic, business is not stalling out.
Don't need to slow grow precipitously to get last mile on inflation.
Wouldn't want to see more weakness in the labor market.

Fed policymakers share equal responsibility on setting of interest rates.
The question of a July rate cut is the wrong question.
Whether rate cut happens in July or September isn't most relevant.
Rates will eventually settle at 3% or higher, which is higher than neutral rate pre-pandemic.

Author

Joshua Gibson

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

More from Joshua Gibson
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD extends the drop to 1.3360

GBP/USD builds on Monday’s decline and briefly clinches five-day lows near 1.3360 on Tuesday. Cable’s extra pullback follows the better tone in the Greenback as uncertainty in the Middle East prompts investors to adopt a cautious stance. Meanwhile, an apathetic UK labour market report also collaborates with the selling pressure on the British Pound.

EUR/USD looks inconclusive near 1.1420

EUR/USD trades in a tight range in the low 1.1400s on Tuesday, struggling to gain momentum amid an equally absence of clear direction in the US Dollar (USD). Uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict is capping the pair’s upside, while traders avoid taking significant positions ahead of Thursday’s ECB gathering.

Gold shows signs of life; focus is back to $4,100

Gold gains ground on Tuesday, reversing Monday’s pessimism and advancing toward the $4,100 mark per troy ounce. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and rising expectations for a hawkish Fed policy outlook are expected to limit the precious metal’s bullish momentum in the near term.

XRP extends recovery as on-chain activity grows
Ripple (XRP) ticks up and trades around $1.13 at the time of writing on Tuesday. This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the cryptocurrency market, attributed to reports that mediators between the United States (US) and Iran are seeking a 10-day cessation of strikes to find a way back to the signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).
The Iranian war has again risen
The Iranian war has again risen to the top of the economics factor list. There is no end in sight. Intelligence experts say the current level of offense/retaliation will not change minds in Tehran, while in Washington, Trump fears all-out war, which would mean boots on the ground.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.