Fed: The outlook is crucial for the Dollar – Commerzbank

EUR/USD remains under moderate selling pressure and trades below 1.1700 on Monday. The pair stays on the back foot as the US Dollar benefits from the cautious market mood following the US military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. Investors await US Manufacturing PMI data.

GBP/USD stages a rebound and trades above 1.3450 following a decline toward 1.3400 earlier in the day. Markets remain wary and prefer safety in the US Dollar due the US-Venezuela geopolitical escalation, limiting the pair's upside. Investors now await the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report for December.

Gold started the week on a bullish note and climbed above $4,400 before going into a consolidation phase in the second half of the day on Monday. Heightened geopolitical tensions help XAU/USD hold its ground after the US launched land strikes on Venezuela, leading to the capture of its President, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife.

The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release the December Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index on Monday. The index is a trusted measure of the health of the United States manufacturing sector, closely followed by market players.

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Meme coins such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe are leading the cryptocurrency market rally driven by the US cross-border operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Dogecoin extends its gain for the fifth consecutive day while SHIB and PEPE take a pause.