Fed Semi-Annual Policy Report: Need greater confidence before moving to rate cuts

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

In its Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report published on Friday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that they have seen modest further progress on inflation this year but added that they still need greater confidence before moving to rate cuts, pre Reuters.

Key takeaways

"Labor supply and demand resembles period right before the pandemic, when the labor market was relatively tight but not overheated."

"Expecting housing-related inflation pressures to gradually decline."

"Despite improvements, still significant disparities in job market."

"Financial conditions appear somewhat restrictive on balance, bank lending pace somewhat tepid."

"Financial system remains sound and resilient though parts of banks' commercial real estate portfolios are facing stress."

"Liquidity at most domestic banks remain ample."

"Valuations high relative to fundamentals in major asset classes."

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this publication and was last seen losing 0.1% on the day at 105.03.

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

AUD/USD climbs to four-month highs near 0.7230

AUD/USD keeps its bid tone well in place for yet another day, this time advancing to the 0.7220-0.7230 band to hit fresh four-month high on Monday. The persistent uptrend in the pair comes on the back of the resurgence of the bearish trend in the Greenback amid unabated tensions in the Middle East. Next on tap in Oz will be the Westpac’s Consumer Confidence index, housing data, and speeches by the RBA’s Hunter and Hauser

USD/JPY holds on just above 154.00

USD/JPY weakens further and remains close to the 154.00 neighbourhood, or seven-month lows, ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The pair’s severe retracement comes in response to rising bets of a rate hike by the BoJ at its next meeting coupled with repatriation speculation, while the offered stance in the Greenback adds to the overall bearish mood.

Gold bounces off lows, back above $4,400

Gold builds on Friday’s losses, although it manages to regain some composure and reclaim the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal’s decline follows the move lower in the Greenback and steady caution ahead of key US data releases toward the end of the week.

Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC and XAU remain pressured amid sticky US-Iran tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) is correcting below $79,000 on Monday, mirroring the broader cryptocurrency market’s lethargic, bearish-shifting outlook. The Crypto King was rejected near $81,500 last Thursday, suggesting investor exhaustion. Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) remains pressed against the near-term $4,400 support, as focus shifts to the upcoming United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.

Strong US jobs, Middle East tensions and key inflation data ahead

Good morning all, hope you enjoyed your weekend. Markets are starting the week after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which increased expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its September meeting. However, US markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, so liquidity should be lower and we may see slower price action.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.