Fed, ECB, UK election and trade talks amongst market movers ahead – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank offered a brief overview of key events lined this week, including central bank meeting (FOMC and ECB) and the highly anticipated UK general election.

Key quotes:

“In an otherwise eventful week, today is quite quiet in terms of economic data releases with today's highlight being the Sentix Investor Confidence indicator for the euro area due out at 10:30 CET. Besides that we have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. After three cuts in a row, we think the Fed will be on hold, as FOMC members have said the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and the Fed wants to see how things play out.”

“The ECB meets on Thursday, which will be Lagarde's debut, and we do not expect any changes. We will look for comments on the ECB's monetary policy strategy review.”

“Also on Thursday, the UK is going to the ballot, which will be decisive for what will happen with Brexit. Polling stations close at 23:00 CET when we will also get our exit polls. Our base case is a Conservative majority, which would mean that PM Boris Johnson can get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas such that the UK can leave the EU by 31 January. After that the more complicated negotiations on the future relationship will start.”

“We are also monitoring closely any comments on the US-China trade talks ahead of the 15 December tariff increases. We still expect a phase 1 deal but apparently there are a few obstacles for the two countries to get over before reaching an agreement (most thought it would have been done last month).”