Euro strengthens against British Pound on UK political uncertainty, ECB hawkish signals

EUR/GBP trades in positive territory around 0.8665 in Tuesday’s early European session.
Growing calls for UK Prime Minister Starmer to resign following poor local election results weigh on the Pound Sterling.
ECB officials signaled potential rate hikes as soon as June due to surging inflation driven by the Middle East conflict.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/GBP cross gains traction near 0.8665 during the early European session on Tuesday. The British Pound (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid political instability in the United Kingdom (UK). Traders brace for the ZEW surveys from Germany and the Eurozone, which are due later on Tuesday.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing rising pressure to set a date for his departure after elections across much of the country resulted in massive losses for his ruling Labour Party. While Starmer stated he will not resign, the resulting political "noise" and rising UK gilt yields have created localized pressure on the GBP.

On the Euro’s front, a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) could underpin the EUR against the GBP. ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Monday that there’s no need to delay the interest rate hikes if energy prices don’t improve swiftly.

Last week, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel bolstered expectations that the bank could raise interest rates as soon as next month, saying companies and households were now reacting in a concerning way to surging global energy prices. Financial markets are now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) hike at the June meeting, with a total of three hikes anticipated by the end of 2026, according to Reuters.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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