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EUR/USD: Upside potential near-term – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank maintain their strategic case for a lower EUR/USD pair based on relative terms of trade, real rates and relative unit labour costs. However, they warn that in the near-term, they see some potential for topside risk on the back of peak policy rates, an improving manufacturing sector backdrop relative to the service sector, and/or easing China pessimism.

Near-term risk of higher EUR/USD

We maintain the strategic case for a lower EUR/USD based on relative terms of trade, real rates (growth prospects) and relative unit labour costs. Hence, we maintain our 12M forecast at 1.03.

In the near-term, we see some potential for topside risk to the cross. Peak policy rates, an improving manufacturing sector relative to the service sector, and/or easing China pessimism could add some support to EUR/USD in the near-term.
 

Author

Matías Salord

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

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