EUR/USD - Top in Place after Trump's Davos speech?

EUR creates bearish pinbar after Trump's "strong dollar" comment.
Focus on US data - GDP and durable goods orders.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD formed a bearish pinbar candle yesterday as Trump's strong dollar comment gave a much-needed boost to the greenback. The currency pair fell to 1.2364 in late NY session before rising to 1.2430 levels in Asia.

The bearish pinbar if followed by a negative price action today would add credence to the overbought conditions as shown by the RSI and indicate a short-term top is in place at 1.2538.

That said, only a strong US GDP and the durable goods figure could yield a negative follow-through to yesterday's bearish pinbar candle. This is because Trump's pro-USD comments have already been shrugged off by Asian desks (as indicated by a rise in EUR/USD in Asia).

Further, ECB President Draghi's focus on GDP and relatively mild emphasis on the strong EUR is being read by investors as a sign the central bank is comfortable with the EUR's ascent. Hence, only a strong US Q4 and Dec durable goods orders figure could weigh over the EUR/USD pair.

Kathy Lien from BK Asset Management writes, " We are looking for (US) growth to slow as trade and retail sales activity weakened towards the end of the year." EUR/USD could revisit previous day's high of 1.2538 if the US data shows a sharp slowdown in the economic activity.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

As of writing, the spot is trading at 1.2425 levels. A move above 1.2432 (monthly 200-MA) could see the pair test supply around 1.25 (zero levels) and 1.2538 (previous day's high). On the other hand, a break below 1.2399 (1-hour 50-MA) could yield a pullback to 1.2329 (1-hour 100-MA) and 1.2284 (1-hour 200-MA)

	TREND INDEX	OB/OS INDEX	VOLATILY INDEX
15M	Bearish	Overbought	Shrinking
1H	Bearish	Neutral	High
4H	Bullish	Neutral	High
1D	Bullish	Neutral	High
1W	Bullish	Overbought	Expanding
Updated Jan 26, 03:45 GMT

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold remains vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold is under mild selling pressure on Monday, trading at around $4,170. The US Dollar advances modestly in thin trading, supported by bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at least one more time before year-end.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?