EUR/USD: Techs lean bearish ahead of US non-farm payrolls

  • EUR/USD is on the defensive, having charted a bearish lower high at key trendline hurdle earlier this week.
  • Recent lows near 1.10 will likely be put to test if the US wage growth tops forecasts.

EUR/USD will likely revisit the recent low of 1.1110, as suggested by technical charts, if the US non-farm payrolls and more importantly, the wage-price inflation, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today, blows past expectations.

The currency pair faced rejection at the trendline connecting March 20 and April 17 highs earlier this week after the Fed kept the interest rates unchanged and Chairman Powell pushed back expectations that the central bank's next move would be a rate cut by associating low inflation with transitory factors. Powell added further that the policymakers see no strong case for a move in either direction.

More importantly, EUR/USD closed well below 1.1187 on Thursday, validating the post-Fed sell-off. With a bearish lower high in place along the descending trendline, the path of least resistance appears to be on the downside.

The recent lows near 1.11, therefore, stand exposed and could be put to test if the US data surprises on the higher side. The Nonfarm Payroll figure is expected to show the economy added 185k jobs in April, following the addition of 196K jobs in March. Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in April, following a 0.1% rise in March.

An above-forecast wage growth data would force markets to scale back expectations of Fed rate cut in December, leading to a broad-based rally in the US Dollar.

Ahead of the Fed, the EUR/USD could take cues from German Bundesbank President Weidmann's speech (due at 08:00 GMT) and the preliminary Eurozone consumer price index for April, scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT.

Pivot points

    1. R3 1.1254
    2. R2 1.1236
    3. R1 1.1205
  1. PP 1.1188
    1. S1 1.1156
    2. S2 1.1139
    3. S3 1.1107


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rebounds after dismal US PMIs

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.0850, rising in response to weak US PMIs, with the services one pointing to contraction. Earlier, German Manufacturing PMI beat estimates. 


GBP/USD advances to 1.2950 after US data

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2950, taking advantage of US weakness stemming from a downfall in Markit's Services PMI in the US. In Britain, the Manufacturing PMI exceeded estimates. 


Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Consolidation process underway

The Crypto board continues to be immersed in an emotional leg-breaking, consistently punishing the emotional state of the traders with its continuous changes of direction.

Read more

XAU/USD unstoppable, breaks to fresh 2020 highs, approaching $1650/oz

XAU/USD is trading in an uptrend above its main daily simple moving averages (SMAs) while breaking above a bull channel. Gold is printing fresh 2020 highs hitting $1646.64 per ounce on an intraday basis.  

Gold News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info