EUR/USD: Techs lean bearish ahead of US non-farm payrolls

EUR/USD is on the defensive, having charted a bearish lower high at key trendline hurdle earlier this week.
Recent lows near 1.10 will likely be put to test if the US wage growth tops forecasts.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD will likely revisit the recent low of 1.1110, as suggested by technical charts, if the US non-farm payrolls and more importantly, the wage-price inflation, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today, blows past expectations.

The currency pair faced rejection at the trendline connecting March 20 and April 17 highs earlier this week after the Fed kept the interest rates unchanged and Chairman Powell pushed back expectations that the central bank's next move would be a rate cut by associating low inflation with transitory factors. Powell added further that the policymakers see no strong case for a move in either direction.

More importantly, EUR/USD closed well below 1.1187 on Thursday, validating the post-Fed sell-off. With a bearish lower high in place along the descending trendline, the path of least resistance appears to be on the downside.

The recent lows near 1.11, therefore, stand exposed and could be put to test if the US data surprises on the higher side. The Nonfarm Payroll figure is expected to show the economy added 185k jobs in April, following the addition of 196K jobs in March. Meanwhile, the average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-on-month in April, following a 0.1% rise in March.

An above-forecast wage growth data would force markets to scale back expectations of Fed rate cut in December, leading to a broad-based rally in the US Dollar.

Ahead of the Fed, the EUR/USD could take cues from German Bundesbank President Weidmann's speech (due at 08:00 GMT) and the preliminary Eurozone consumer price index for April, scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT.

Pivot points

1. R3 1.1254
2. R2 1.1236
3. R1 1.1205
PP 1.1188
1. S1 1.1156
2. S2 1.1139
3. S3 1.1107

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

GBP/USD holds near Feb. 11 highs as bulls await breakout above 1.3660

The GBP/USD pair trades with a positive bias around mid-1.3600s at the start of a new week and remains well within striking distance of its highest level since February 11, touched on Friday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders and backs the case for an extension of a nearly one-month-old uptrend.

EUR/USD holds steady amid US debt strategy

EUR/USD remains stronger for the fourth successive trading day, hovering around 1.1680 during the Asian hours. The currency pair holds its ground as the US Dollar struggles under pressure from newly announced United States fiscal moves. The Treasury Department surprised financial markets by pledging to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated government debt in an attempt to rein in rising bond yields.

Gold keeps rallying toward $4,700, fresh three-month highs

Gold extends its last week's stellar performance into Asian trading on Monday, refreshing three-month highs beyond $4,600. The precious metal capitalizes on persistent US Dollar weakness, following the US Treasury's buyback plan amid fresh US-Canada trade tensions.

Here's what I learned trading meme coins

I’ve been trading cryptocurrencies for the past seven years, with meme coins becoming one of the most exciting and implacable parts of my experience. I love them because they represent internet culture and community sentiment, and, let’s be honest, extreme speculation. Newly launched meme coins were especially tempting: get in early enough, I thought, and a small bet could turn into a huge return.

The week ahead: Jackson Hole and Nvidia results to take focus away from Trump

We start the week with the focus squarely on the US. Rising Treasury yields, the Jackson Hole Symposium, inflation and GDP data, along with tariff risks, will dominate market action in the coming days.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.