EUR/USD sticks to positive bias around 1.0500 ahead of ECB; not out of the woods yet

EUR/USD attracts some buyers on Thursday amid subdued US Dollar price action.
The upside remains capped amid expectations for a more ECB rate cut in 2025.
Bets for a less dovish Fed underpin the USD and contribute to capping the major.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seem to have snapped a four-day losing streak to over a one-week low touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0500 psychological mark, up just over 0.10% for the day, as traders keenly await the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) decision before placing fresh directional bets.

The ECB is all but certain to cut interest rates again amid concerns about the faltering Eurozone economy, though investors remain split over the possibility of a larger rate cut. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the accompanying monetary policy statement and ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks at the post-meeting press conference. Investors will look for signals about further easing in 2025, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the shared currency and provide some meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair.

Heading into the key central bank event risk, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action is seen as a key factor lending some support to the currency pair. The near-term bias for the USD remains tilted in favor of bullish traders amid the growing conviction that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will boost inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause its rate-cutting cycle. This continues to push the US Treasury bond yields higher, which is seen underpinning the USD and capping the upside for the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, concerns about the economic impact of Trump's tariff plans warrant some caution before confirming a near-term bottom for spot prices and positioning for any further appreciating move. Apart from the crucial ECB policy decision, traders on Thursday will take cues from the US macro data – the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will drive the USD and produce short-term opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.

Economic Indicator

ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate

One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital.

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2026 economic and market outlook

As an aggregate, key economic indicators point towards the global economy growing further in out 2026 Economic and Market outlook. In particular, the G20 countries, which account for roughly 80% of the total global GDP are projected to grow by 2.9% next year.

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