Australian Dollar rebounds as US Dollar weakens on Fed concerns
- Australian Dollar halts its three-day losing streak on Monday.
- ANZ Job Advertisements fell 0.5% in December after a revised 1.5% decline previously.
- The US Dollar weakens after federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rises against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following three days of losses. The AUD/USD pair advances as the Greenback weakens, potentially amid concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve.
Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the central bank's renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope, the New York Times reported on Sunday.
ANZ Job Advertisements declined 0.5% in December, following an upwardly revised 1.5% drop in the prior month. Meanwhile, household spending increased 1.0% month-on-month in November 2025, easing from a revised 1.4% rise in October, as consumers remained cautious amid elevated interest rates and persistent inflation.
Australia’s mixed November Consumer Price Index (CPI) left the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook uncertain. However, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said that the November inflation data was largely as expected. Hauser added that interest rate cuts are unlikely anytime soon. Focus now shifts to the quarterly CPI report due later this month for clearer guidance on the RBA’s next policy move.
US Dollar declines due to Fed concerns
- The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground and trading around 98.90 at the time of writing. The Greenback struggles amid dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. December’s slower-than-expected US jobs growth suggests the US central bank could hold interest rates steady later this month.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 50,000 in December, falling short of November's 56,000 (revised from 64,000) and came in weaker than the market expectation of 60,000. However, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.4% in December from 4.6% in November, while the Average Hourly Earnings climbed to 3.8% YoY in December from 3.6% in the previous reading.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures continue to price in about a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.
- Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the decline in the unemployment rate was welcome and described job growth as modest but stable. Barkin added that it is difficult to find firms outside healthcare or AI that are hiring and said it remains unclear whether the labor market will tilt toward more hiring or more firing.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview on Thursday that the Federal Reserve should continue cutting rates, arguing that lower rates are “the only ingredient missing” for even stronger economic growth and that the Fed should not delay.
- The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims rose modestly to 208,000 in the week ended January 3, slightly below market expectations of 210,000 but above the previous week’s revised 200,000. Continuing jobless claims increased to 1.914 million from 1.858 million, indicating a gradual rise in the number of people remaining on unemployment benefits.
- The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Wednesday that the US Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 52.3.
- The US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, following a revised decline of 29,000 in November. The figure came in slightly below market expectations of 47,000. JOLTS Job Openings came in at 7.146 million in November. This reading followed the 7.449 million openings recorded in October (revised from 7.67 million) and came in below the market expectations of 7.6 million.
- China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 0.7% in November but below the 0.9% forecast. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.2%, reversing November’s -0.1% reading. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.9% YoY in December, improving from a 2.2% decline previously and slightly beating expectations of a -2.0% print.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported last week that Australia’s Trade Surplus narrowed to 2,936M MoM in November, versus 4,353M (revised from 4,385M) in the previous reading. Exports fell by 2.9% MoM in November from a rise of 2.8% (revised from 3.4%) seen a month earlier. Meanwhile, Imports grew by 0.2% MoM in November, compared to a rise of 2.4% (revised from 2.0%) seen in October.
Australian Dollar rebounds toward ascending channel near 0.6700
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6700 on Monday. Daily chart analysis shows the pair attempting a rebound toward an ascending channel, signaling a renewed bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.33 remains above the midpoint, supporting upside momentum.
A sustained move back inside the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support AUD/USD toward 0.6766, its highest level since October 2024. Further gains could see the pair test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 0.6860.
The immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6700, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6631. Further losses would open the downside toward 0.6414, the lowest since June 2025.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.17% | -0.08% | 0.17% | -0.11% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.19% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.10% | 0.02% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.08% | -0.09% | 0.23% | -0.01% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.17% | -0.33% | -0.23% | -0.27% | -0.24% | -0.30% | -0.37% | |
| CAD | 0.11% | -0.06% | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | -0.10% | -0.02% | 0.24% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | 0.15% | -0.02% | 0.06% | 0.30% | 0.03% | 0.08% | -0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
