EUR/USD consolidates near highs as investors brace for US payrolls figures

The EUR/USD pair is practically flat on Thursday, trading right below 1.1800 at the time of writing, not far from the multi-year highs reached earlier this week. Investors' appetite for risk is fading as optimism about the US deal with Vietnam gives way to caution heading into the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

In the Eurozone, June's services activity was revised higher to 50.5 from the previously estimated 50.0 reading. These figures reveal that the sector grew again in the last month, following a slight contraction in May. The impact of the data in the Euro, however, has been minimal.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam, which boosted hopes that more such deals could be reached ahead of the July 9 deadline. The US Dollar (USD) lost ground against its main peers before picking up again, as other Asian countries complain about the complex tariff negotiations with the US.

Beyond that, Trump continued with his attacks on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell. The US president asked Powell to "resign immediately" in the latest episode of an unprecedented hammering of a Fed chief that puts into question the independence of the central bank and erodes the US Dollar's status as a reserve currency.

The highlight this Thursday is the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which have been moved one day forward this month due to the Independence Day holiday in the US on Friday. Payrolls' data will attract particular interest, following an unexpected decline in the ADP Employment report on Wednesday. The risk is skewed to the downside for the US Dollar as a downbeat reading might practically confirm a Fed interest rate cut in the coming months.

Daily digest market movers: Higher hopes of Fed rate cuts keep US Dollar rallies limited

• The ADP Employment report showed a 33K decline in private payrolls in June, against market expectations of a 95K increase. June's reading features the first contraction since the pandemic and has boosted investors' interest in the NFP report, due at 12:30 GMT, which will be read from a monetary policy perspective.
• Wednesday's ADP reading increased bets for Fed rate cuts in the next two months. Futures markets are now pricing in a 25% chance of a July cut, up from 20% before the report, while the odds for at least a 25 basis points (bps) cut in September have risen to 96% from 90%, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool data.
• The market consensus anticipates a 110K increase on Nonfarm Payrolls in June, following a 139K increase in May. The Unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 4.3% from 4.2%, with Average Hourly Earnings growing at a 3.9% yearly rate, unchanged from the previous month.
• Later on, the US ISM Services PMI is expected to show that the sector's activity returned to growth levels in June, with a 50.5 reading from a slight contraction at 49.9 in May.

EUR/USD consolidates gains near 1.1830 highs

EUR/USD is going through some consolidation, having rallied more than 2% in a 10-day rally, reaching its highest levels in nearly four years at 1.1830. The pair has failed to find significant acceptance above 11800, but so far, it remains steady near highs with the US Dollar on the defensive.

The 4-hour chart shows the bullish trend intact, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) well above the 50 level. Immediate support is at Wednesday's low, at 1.1745. Further down, the area between the June 27 low at 1.1680 and the June 26 low at 1.1650 offers significant support for a bearish correction.

On the upside, immediate resistance is at Wednesday's high of 1.1810 ahead of the June 1 high at 1.1830. Above here, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the July 1-2 reversal is at 1.1850.