EUR/USD ranges above 1.1200, unmoved by ECB minutes, as case for near-term consolidation grows


  • EUR/USD continues to trade slightly to the north of the 1.1200 level and did not react to the ECB minutes.
  • Technical indicators increasingly point to near-term consolidation following the pair’s recent run of losses.

EUR/USD has not seen any notable reaction to the release of the latest ECB minutes, which did not contain any surprises. The pair continues to consolidate slightly to the north of the 1.1200 level, with the euro one of the better performers in G10 FX markets on Thursday amid otherwise broadly subdued trading conditions. Volumes are thin given that US market participants are away for Thanksgiving and US markets shut.

Historic losses

EUR/USD’s 3.2% drop over the last 21 trading session ranks in the second from bottom percentile, when compared against the rolling 21-session change over the past five years. Moreover, the pair on Thursday was trading more than 5.0% below its 200DMA, which ranks in the bottom percentile when compared with EUR/USD’s rolling percentage differences to the 200DMA over the last five years.

Case for consolidation

But with the euro bears having thus far failed to push EUR/USD as low as the mid-June 2020 lows around 1.1170 this week and the euro looking increasingly oversold by most metrics. In all but one of the last nine-session, EUR/USD’s 14-day Relative Strength Index score has been under 30. A close at the end of this week abvoe 1.1200 might be taken as signal for short-covering.

Meanwhile, the pair’s Z-score to the 200DMA (the number of standard deviations away from it) is approaching -3.0. Over the last five years, a Z-score to the 200DMA at around -3.0 has been a good signal of near-term consolidation lays ahead, or in many instances, a substantial bounce. The mean five-day return in EUR/USD from days when its Z-score to 200DMA was below -2.5 is +0.4%, while the mean 21-day return is 0.3% and the mean 65-day return is 1.3%. The case for near-term consolidation is clearly growing.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD eases towards 1.1300 as yields pause south-run

EUR/USD is easing towards 1.1300, having faced rejection just shy of 1.1350. The recovery in the risk sentiment pauses the Treasury yields’ south-run, underpinning the US dollar. Fedspeak, US Jobless Claims, Omicron updates in focus ahead of Friday’s US NFP.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops back below 1.3300 as USD rebounds

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3300, paring back gains amid resurgent US dollar demand. The greenback rebounds with yields on Fed’s hawkish view. Concerns over the Omicron covid variant and Brexit issues continue to limit the pair’s upside. US data awaited amid a light UK docket.

GBP/USD News

Gold struggles near one-month low, around $1,770 region

The Fed's hawkish outlook prompted fresh selling around gold on Thursday. A stronger USD offset Omicron fears and further weighed on the commodity. The technical set-up supports prospects for a slide to November swing low.

Gold News

Solana price to provide another buy opportunity before SOL tags $250

A brief technical and on-chain analysis on Solana price. Here, FXStreet's analysts evaluate how SOL could be bound for a brief correction.

Read more

Cyber Monday 2021 Discounts!

Glued to your trading screen on Cyber Monday? Upgrade your skills by signing up for FXStreet’s Premium service, offered at a discount of up to 50%. Fellow traders have already taken advantage of Black Friday profits. What about you? 

Subscribe now!

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures