EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Bears remain in control with 1.1450 support eyed
- EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1500 which leaver the 1.1450 support area exposed.
- Fed's Goolsbee reiterated that the US has an inflation problem, hinting at further rate hikes ahead.
- In Europe, the growing uncertainty in Germany has offset the positive impact from lower Oil prices.
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating last week’s decline against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with price action capped below 1.1500 and the seven-week low in the mid 1.1400s still on the bears’ radar. The decline in Oil prices has failed to provide any significant support to the Euro, which remains on the defensive amid the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish repricing and the growing political uncertainty in Germany.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has reinforced those views, stating that the US central bank “right now does not have an employment problem; it does have an inflation problem,” at a Monetary Policy forum in London.
News from Germany provided additional pressure for the Euro. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU party was beaten in Berlin by the left and took the worst blow in postwar Germany in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's state elections against Eurosceptic and pro-Kremlin Alternative for Germany (AfD). Merz has vowed roi stay in office to fulfil the economic reforms, but questions about his support are highly likely to arise.
In the calendar this week, the main focus will be on the preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from the Eurozone and the US, due on Wednesday, that will provide further clues about the economic momentum of their respective economies.
Technical Analysis: The weak recovery hints at further depreciation
EUR/USD failed to breach the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) last week and depreciated further before finding some support at the 1.1450 area. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts remain negative, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above oversold levels and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, suggesting that bounces are likely to be capped.
Upside attempts remain capped below the 1.1500 area so far, which is closing the path towards the August 13, September 14 lows at the 1.1520 area and the September 2 lows near 1.1570.
On the downside, a clear break below Friday's lows, at 1.1456, might find support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August recovery, at 1.1410 ahead of the June-July trough, in the 1.1325-1.1365 area
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.09% | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.18% | -0.22% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.23% | 0.12% | -0.15% | -0.21% | -0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.00% | -0.02% | 0.21% | 0.10% | -0.16% | -0.23% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | -0.20% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.42% | -0.42% | -0.31% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.10% | 0.11% | -0.31% | -0.33% | -0.21% | |
| AUD | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.42% | 0.31% | -0.04% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.42% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.21% | -0.07% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
