Germany: Orders hint at recovery – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that new orders in German industry rose sharply in September, with core orders excluding big ticket items also gaining strongly. He argues that this may mark the start of an upward trend in core orders. The report suggests that industrial production in Germany could increase in coming months, supporting overall economic growth.

Core orders signal tentative industrial upturn

"New orders in German industry increased by 4.4% in September compared to the previous month. Even though they only made up for part of the August slump, these figures are positive. This is because the core orders excluding big ticket orders also rose sharply by 5.1%, so that they might have started an upward trend."

"This increases the chance that industrial production will increase in the coming months and thus contribute to the growth of the German economy."

"Good news from German industry: After business sentiment had improved in recent months, the "hard" data now also seem to be turning upwards."

"But core orders excluding big ticket orders, the latter usually only affect production with a considerable delay and over a longer period of time, also increased very strongly by 5.1%. In particular, orders in the automotive sector, which had previously fallen significantly, increased noticeably."

"After this strong increase in September, a slight upward trend now seems to be emerging in core orders. If this is confirmed in the coming months – as evidenced by the improved sentiment among companies – production is also likely to increase, thus supporting growth in the German economy."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)