EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains below 1.1700 amid weakening momentum

EUR/USD hovers around the 50-day EMA at 1.1682.
The 14-day RSI at 42.6 signals weakening momentum with a neutral-to-bearish bias.
The initial resistance lies at the nine-day EMA of 1.1711.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/USD remains steady after four days of losses, trading around 1.1680 during the Asian hours on Thursday. On the daily chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.6 (neutral-bearish) indicates weakening momentum after slipping below the 50 midline. RSI staying sub-50 would keep bears engaged and limit recovery attempts.

The EUR/USD pair is currently positioned below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and marginally below the 50-day EMA, underscoring fading upside momentum. The medium-term average edges higher but is flattening, while the short-term average has rolled over, keeping a near-term cap in place.

The EUR/USD pair remains vulnerable while it holds under the declining nine-day EMA. Sustained weakness beneath the short-term average could keep risks skewed to the downside. A close below the 50-day EMA at 1.1682 would weaken the medium-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to test the monthly low of 1.1589, set on December 1.

On the upside, a rebound above the nine-day EMA at 1.1711 would revive the momentum and support the EUR/USD pair to target the three-month high of 1.1808, which was recorded on December 24. Further advances would improve the short-term momentum and open the doors toward the 1.1918, the highest level since June 2021.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.09%	0.15%	0.15%	-0.03%
EUR	0.01%		0.06%	0.05%	0.10%	0.15%	0.16%	-0.02%
GBP	-0.05%	-0.06%		0.00%	0.04%	0.10%	0.11%	-0.07%
JPY	-0.03%	-0.05%	0.00%		0.04%	0.11%	0.08%	-0.08%
CAD	-0.09%	-0.10%	-0.04%	-0.04%		0.07%	0.06%	-0.12%
AUD	-0.15%	-0.15%	-0.10%	-0.11%	-0.07%		0.00%	-0.17%
NZD	-0.15%	-0.16%	-0.11%	-0.08%	-0.06%	-0.00%		-0.18%
CHF	0.03%	0.02%	0.07%	0.08%	0.12%	0.17%	0.18%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week

Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.

CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold

The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.