EUR/USD Price Forecast: First upside barrier emerges above 1.0450
- EUR/USD gains ground to around 1.0430 in Thursday’s early European session.
- The pair keeps the positive outlook above the 100-period EMA with a bullish RSI indicator.
- The immediate resistance level emerges at 1.0461; the first downside target is seen at 1.0410.
The EUR/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.0425 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The weakening of the US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the major pair. However, tariff concerns from US President Donald Trump and geopolitical tension might cap its upside.
Technically, the bullish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact as the major pair holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline, near 42.85, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out.
The first upside barrier for EUR/USD emerges near 1.0461, the high of February 19. The key resistance level to watch is the 1.0500-1.0505 zone, representing the psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to 1.0533, the high of January 27.
On the other hand, the crucial support level for the major pair is seen at 1.0410, the confluence of the 100-period EMA, and the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. A breach of this level will see a drop to 1.0352, the low of February 6. The additional downside filter is located at 1.0285, the low of February 10.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
(This story was corrected on February 20 at 13:02 GMT to say that the first downside target is seen at 1.0410, not 1.4936.)
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Author
Lallalit Srijandorn
FXStreet
Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.
