EUR/USD Price Analysis: Seems vulnerable below 1.1000, bears flirt with 50% Fibo support

The EUR/USD pair consolidates the overnight sharp fall to a two-and-half-week low and oscillates in a narrow trading band, just below the 1.1000 psychological mark through the Asian session on Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) manages to preserve the previous day's strong move up to its highest level since July 11 and remains well supported by the upbeat US macro data, which increased the likelihood of more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The shared currency, on the other hand, is weighed down by the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) did not provide any explicit forward guidance about upcoming moves, raising the possibility of a potential pause in September. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing bullish bets around the EUR/USD pair and acting as a headwind.

From a technical perspective, the overnight sustained breakdown through the 1.1050 strong horizontal resistance breakpoint-turned-support was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent downfall, however, stalls just ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July rally. The said support is pegged near the mid-1.0900s and should act as a pivotal point, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses. The EUR/USD pair might then challenge the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 1.0900 mark, before dropping to the 61.8% Fibo., around the 1.0880-1.0875 zone.

On the flip side, the 1.1000 psychological mark now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.1030 region. A sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the EUR/USD pair to reclaim the 1.1100 mark. The upward trajectory could get extended further, though runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 1.1125 region, representing the 23.6% Fibo. level. This is followed by the overnight swing high, which if cleared will shift the bias in favour of bulls and pave the way for a move beyond the 1.1200 mark, towards retesting the multi-month peak near the 1.1275 area.

EUR/USD daily chart

Key levels to watch