EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair edges above 1.0500 but still struggles below 20-day SMA

EUR/USD sees a slight uptick on Monday, hovering near 1.0500.
RSI rises modestly to 43 but remains in negative territory, signaling a fragile recovery.
MACD histogram shows rising green bars, yet the pair lacks the momentum to break above the 20-day SMA.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair managed another mild recovery on Monday, drifting slightly above the 1.0500 mark after bouncing from recent lows. Although the pair approached the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0520, it once again failed to breach this key resistance level, maintaining a cautious outlook.

Technical indicators reflect a tentative improvement but remain skewed to the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has ticked higher to 43, indicating a mild gain in buying interest, but it still resides in negative territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is now printing rising green bars, suggesting early signs of stabilizing momentum. However, the pair’s inability to overcome the 20-day SMA undermines the sustainability of any bullish attempt.

For a meaningful shift in sentiment, EUR/USD would need a decisive break above the 20-day SMA at around 1.0520. Until that occurs, the bias remains tilted to the downside, with initial support seen at the psychological 1.0500 level, followed by the 1.0480 area. A failure to hold above these levels could open the door to further losses, reinforcing the overall bearish perspective.

EUR/USD daily chart

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD remains in two-day highs around 1.3260

GBP/USD adds to Friday’s bounce, gathering fresh traction and flirting with the 1.3270 zone on Monday, or two-day tops. Cable’s decent advance comes despite the move higher in the Greenback and investors’ assessing of UK PM K. Starmer's resignation.

EUR/USD remains close to three-month lows near 1.1450

EUR/USD sets aside Friday’s bounce and trades with modest losses in the mid-1.1400s at the beginning of the week. The continuation of the bid bias in the US Dollar continues to weigh on spot despite improving sentiment from the geopolitical front.

Gold bounces off lows, looks to surpass $4,200

Gold regains composure and leaves behind three-consecutive daily declines on Monday, looking to regain the area above the $4,200 mark per troy ounce. Reports of progress in the latest round of US-Iran talks are helping the precious metal maintain its footing at the start of the week, although the stronger Greenback seems to limit the upside potential for now.

Breaking: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire deal violation

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a warning to all vessels: "Do not approach the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, your security will be jeopardized."

Is Shiba Inu dead or just in a crisis? The data behind SHIB's 95% crash

SHIB, the dog-themed meme coin that became one of the biggest success stories in crypto and turned early buyers into crypto millionaires, is facing tough times. Its price has fallen more than 32% so far this year, and it is down 95% from its all-time high in 2021. Is SHIB simply another fading meme coin, or is the market overlooking a possible recovery story?

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.