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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Marches firmly towards parity, though remains downward biased

  • EUR/USD is closing towards the parity on speculations that the Fed could shift “dovish.”
  • The EUR/USD continues its recovery, though shy of breaking the 50-day EMA above parity.
  • For the EUR/USD to shift neutral, it needs to clear 1.0226; otherwise, the bias remains downwards.

The shared currency continues its recovery against the greenback, as the EUR/USD cleared the 20-day EMA at 0.9891 and climbed towards the 50-day EMA, though it fell short of reaching it, printing a daily high at 0.9997. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9984, up by 1.66%.

The EUR/USD extended its recovery due to some fundamental reasons. US Treasury bond yields edge lower as speculations of central banks tightening at a slower pace grew as reflected by a risk-on impulse. Therefore, as shown by the US Dollar Index, the greenback dropped from its YTD high at 114.77, to 110.184, at the time of typing.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD daily chart delineates that the euro, even though it recovered from two-decade lows, it is still downward biased. The major could shift its bias to neutral if it clears the 100-day EMA at 1.0226 and would shift bullish if the pair is back above 1.0615, which could pave the way for a 200-day EMA test at 1.0632. That said, failure at parity or the 50-day EMA at 1.0015 would expose the EUR/USD to selling pressure.

Therefore, the EUR/USD first support would be 0.9900, closely followed by the 20-day EMA at 0.9890. A breach of the latter will expose the 0.9800 figure, followed by the YTD low at 0.9635.

EUR/USD Key Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price0.9984
Today Daily Change0.0162
Today Daily Change %1.65
Today daily open0.9825
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.9889
Daily SMA501.0023
Daily SMA1001.0239
Daily SMA2001.0648
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.9845
Previous Daily Low0.9753
Previous Weekly High0.9854
Previous Weekly Low0.9536
Previous Monthly High1.0198
Previous Monthly Low0.9536
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.981
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.9788
Daily Pivot Point S10.977
Daily Pivot Point S20.9716
Daily Pivot Point S30.9679
Daily Pivot Point R10.9862
Daily Pivot Point R20.99
Daily Pivot Point R30.9954

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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