|

EUR/USD plunges from around parity to 0.9850 amid a strong US dollar

  • EUR/USD plummets as speculation of a Fed pivot abated.
  • US Services PMIs were mixed, though the ISM remained at expansionary territory.
  • EU’s services activity weakened, except for France, growing at a mild pace.

The EUR/USD is erasing some of Tuesday’s gains as speculations of a Fed pivot towards a dovish stance faded, as shown by US T-bond yields rising again, while US Services PMI data, even though slowed, remains at expansionary territory. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9852 after hitting a daily high close to parity.

EUR/USD dropped on a strong US dollar

Sentiment deteriorated, as previously mentioned, as a possible Fed pivot faded. US economic data revealed during the day showed that private payrolls increased by 208K, as depicted by the ADP National Employment for September. Later in the day, economic activity in the Services sector showed mixed readings, though the ISM flashed that the economy is still expanding at a slower pace.

The S&P Global Services and Composite PMIs came at 49.3 and 49.5, respectively. Nevertheless, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dived to 56.7, less than August’s 56.9 but exceeded estimations of 56.0. Given the backdrop, the US economy stayed resilient amidst an aggressive tightening cycle by the US Federal Reserve, therefore bolstering the greenback.

Hence, the EUR/USD dipped 130 pips on the day towards current exchange rates. In the meantime, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield is rising 16 bps, up at 3.781%, a headwind for the EUR/USD.

At the same time, the US Department of Commerce reported that the US Trade deficit narrowed by 4.3% to $67.4 billion in August, the lowest since May 2021.

Aside from this, the Eurozone reported that business activity slowed, as shown by the S&P Global PMI survey, further cementing the case of the EU’s getting into a recession as a stagflation scenario looms. Services activity weakened in Germany, Italy, and Spain, except for France, though it grew weaker than estimated.

EUR/USD Key Technical Levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price0.9855
Today Daily Change-0.0131
Today Daily Change %-1.31
Today daily open0.9986
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.9893
Daily SMA501.0021
Daily SMA1001.0234
Daily SMA2001.0641
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1
Previous Daily Low0.9806
Previous Weekly High0.9854
Previous Weekly Low0.9536
Previous Monthly High1.0198
Previous Monthly Low0.9536
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.9926
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.988
Daily Pivot Point S10.9862
Daily Pivot Point S20.9737
Daily Pivot Point S30.9668
Daily Pivot Point R11.0055
Daily Pivot Point R21.0124
Daily Pivot Point R31.0249

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1750 as US Dollar loses strength

EUR/USD returned to the 1.1750 price zone in the American session on Friday, despite falling Wall Street, which indicates risk aversion. Trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, with the focus shifting to US employment and European data scheduled for next week.

GBP/USD nears 1.3500, holds within familiar levels

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades with modest intraday gains at around 1.3490 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold trims intraday gains, approaches $4,300

Gold retreated sharply from the $4,400  area and trades flat for the day in the $4,320 price zone. Choppy trading conditions exacerbated the intraday decline, although XAU/USD bearish case is out of the picture, considering growing expectations for a dovish Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).