EUR/USD hits fresh lows ahead of US PMI, consumer sentiment data

The Euro returns to lows near 1.1500 after failing to extend beyond 1.1550.
Eurozone preliminary PMIs have crushed the Euro's frail recovery attempt.
US Nonfarm payrolls beat forecasts in September, but the jobless rate grew unexpectedly

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

EUR/USD has reversed previous gains and trades at 1.1515 ahead of the US session opening, after hitting fresh two-week lows, right below the 1.1500 level earlier on the day. A frail Euro recovery was crushed by weaker Eurozone and German HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, ahead of US preliminary PMIs and consumer sentiment releases

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction levels, to a 49.7 reading in November, from 50.0 in October, against market expectations of an improvement, to 50.2. The Services PMI eased to 52.4, undershooting expectations of a steady 52.5 reading.

Likewise, German Manufacturing activity has shown a deeper contraction in November, with a decline to 48.4 from October's 49.6, while services activity eased to 52.7 from 54.6, well below market expectations of a 53.9 reading.

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, has maintained a firm tone through the week, as investors came to terms wth the fact that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might take some time before easing its monetary policy further. The minutes of October's FOMC meeting revealed a wide divergence among policymakers, and the long-awaited Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September have failed to shed further light on the outcome of the Fed's December meeting.

Later today, European Central Bank officials, Luis de Guindos, Joachim Nagel, and José Luis Escrivá will take the stage. In the US session, the S&P Global preliminary PMIs and November's Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, together with a slew of Fed officials, will provide the fundamental guidance for the USD.

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.07%	-0.05%	-0.56%	-0.06%	0.04%	-0.17%	0.00%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.13%	-0.63%	-0.14%	-0.04%	-0.25%	-0.07%
GBP	0.05%	0.13%		-0.53%	-0.01%	0.10%	-0.12%	0.06%
JPY	0.56%	0.63%	0.53%		0.52%	0.61%	0.39%	0.57%
CAD	0.06%	0.14%	0.00%	-0.52%		0.10%	-0.12%	0.08%
AUD	-0.04%	0.04%	-0.10%	-0.61%	-0.10%		-0.22%	-0.03%
NZD	0.17%	0.25%	0.12%	-0.39%	0.12%	0.22%		0.17%
CHF	-0.00%	0.07%	-0.06%	-0.57%	-0.08%	0.03%	-0.17%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Daily digest market movers: Euro recovery loses steam

US Dollar downside attempts remain limited, with investors paring back expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, while the Euro's recovery attempt is suffering a significant setback, following German and Eurozone's disappointing business activity figures.
Earlier in the day, ECB President Christine Lagarde affirmed that Euro strength might bring down inflation further than expected, and that the bank will remain vigilant, ready to adjust its monetary policy if needed.
In the US, S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing PMI is expected to have slowed to 52.0 in November from 52.5 in October, while the Services PMI is expected to remain steady at a 54.8 rate.
Later on the day, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show a moderate improvement, to 50.5 in November from last month's 50.3 reading. Consumer Inflation Expectations for the next 12 months are seen at 4.7% and at 3.6% in the next five years, in both cases, unchanged from October.
On Thursday, US Nonfarm Payrolls data beat expectations with a 119K net increase in employment in September, well above the 50K gain consensus. August's reading was revised down to 4K net loss from the previously estimated 22K increase. The Unemployment Rate, however, unexpectedly rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in the previous month, which curbed market enthusiasm about the data release.
In the Eurozone, the European Commission's preliminary Consumer Confidence Index remained steady at -14.2 in November, against expectations of a moderate improvement to -14.0.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains vulnerable below 1.1550

The EUR/USD has found support at the 1.1500 psychological level, but is failing to find acceptance above 1.1550, which leaves the pair vulnerable to further depreciation. Technical indicators are trending higher on the 4-hour chart, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the key 50 level, which suggests that the recovery attempt remains frail.

The pair should breach Thursday's high at the mentioned 1.1550 level, to gather momentum, and shift the focus to the November 18 and 19 highs in the area of 1.1600 and to the top of a descending channel from the mid-October highs, which is now around 1.1625.

However, failure to break 1.1550 might increase bears' confidence to retest the 1.1500 psychological level, focusing on the November 5 lows, near 1.1470, and the mentioned channel support, around 1.1425

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Services PMI

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.