Economists at Commerzbank have adjusted their EUR/USD forecast for the next year.
EUR is likely to weaken again in the second half of next year
“We now expect rates to peak at 6% (previously 5.5%) in the US and at 4% in the Eurozone (previously 3.5%). However, what is more decisive for our EUR/USD projections is that we do not expect any ECB rate cuts until the end of the forecasting horizon in late 2024 anymore, whereas we assume that the US will lower its key rate even further in 2024 than previously projected.”
“We have left our EUR/USD projections for 2023 unchanged, but now expect a further rise in EUR/USD to 1.12 until mid-2024.”
“Only in the second half of next year EUR is likely to weaken again as the realisation is then going to take effect that inflation in the Eurozone is more stubborn and that the ECB was not restrictive enough to return inflation to its target. This will put pressure on the Euro.”
Source: Commerzbank Research
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats below 1.0550 as markets turn cautious
EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.0550 on Tuesday. The pair eases due to fading market's optimism over likely Chinese stimulus, allowing the US Dollar to hold its ground ahead of Wednesday's key November inflation data.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.2750 ahead of this week's key US data
GBP/USD fluctuates in a relatively tight channel at around 1.2750 on Tuesday as the cautious market mood makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction. Nevertheless, investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of key data releases from the US, limiting the pair's volatility.
Gold clings to modest daily gains above $2,670
Gold builds on Monday's gains and trades above $2,670 on Tuesday, supported by the renewed optimism about an improving Chinese economic outlook. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in positive territory above 4.2%, capping XAU/USD's upside.
Altcoins LTC, CRV and ONDO recover after retesting key support levels
Litecoin, Curve DAO and Ondo prices recover on Tuesday after retesting and bouncing off key support levels following Monday’s double-digit correction. The technical outlook suggests a further recovery ahead, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence momentum indicator supporting the rebound.
How the US-China trade dispute is redefining global trade
Since Donald Trump took office in 2017, trade flows and market shares have changed substantially. We think that shift is set to continue under looming tariffs and a new protectionist environment.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.