EUR/USD faces further gains near term – UOB

Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group see EUR/USD advancing further in the next few weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: While we expected EUR to continue to strengthen last Friday, we were of the view that “it might not be able to maintain a foothold above 1.1250.” However, EUR rose less than expected to 1.1244 before easing to end the day marginally higher at 1.1227 (+0.03%). The current price action is likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade sideways between 1.1190 and 1.1250. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Last Monday (10 Jul), when EUR was trading at 1.0965, we indicated that “the rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further advance in EUR.”. Our view was correct, as EUR surged over the past week. In our latest narrative from last Friday (14 Jul, spot at 1.1225), we indicated that “while EUR could rise further, it is premature to expect a move to the 2022 high of 1.1495.” We noted, there are short-term resistance levels at 1.1300 and 1.1400. We continue to hold the same view. It is worth noting the pace the advance in EUR has slowed as it closed marginally higher last Friday (1.1227, +0.03%). On the downside, if EUR breaks below 1.1145 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1120 last Friday), it would indicate that EUR is not strengthening further.